When discussing future military capabilities today, artificial intelligence and the way it will transform warfare is at the top of the list.
But in the Pentagon and other armed forces, AI ambitions do not match current budgetary reality.
And while more money is rarely the answer to all of the Department of Defense’s shortcomings, it does buy armed forces.
As a former Chief of Naval Operations and former member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff who continues to participate in nongovernmental dialogues in Asia, including with China, I have followed China’s impressive military rise.
Chinese ships, planes and technologies are not as good as ours, but they are buying more and getting better quickly. Dialogue agendas and discussions have also evolved to include transformative technologies, with AI at the forefront. There is no doubt that Beijing is buying into this area and doubling down on its efforts the deeper we get into the AI modernization war.
Years ago, the Air Force and Navy began developing a new sixth-generation AI-powered fighter jet to stay one step ahead of the model developed in China.
This project later split into two separate approaches – the F/A-XX for the Navy and the Next Generation Air Dominance System (NGAD) for the Air Force. Although one is launched from land and the other from sea, they share the same goal: to maintain global air supremacy and help the United States become the first nation to wage true AI-powered air warfare. The only way to achieve this is to develop these two new AI warfare systems.
But the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which Congress passed last year, has crippled the U.S. military budget. The Navy and Air Force are now stuck. In March, the Navy delayed funding for its F/A-XX system by a full billion dollars. The Air Force warned that it too will soon have to make “tough decisions” about NGAD, including possibly ending the entire program.
That must not happen. China is already moving closer to the USA militarily. Its new fighter aircraft system will be operational by 2035.. If the United States does not advance with full commitment, our air sovereignty will be threatened.
The AI race is on and will determine the future of warfare. The global military AI market is nearly $9 billion today and is expected to reach $25 billion by 2032. China and the malign countries around it want China to become the dominant player in the AI field. This goal can be achieved by delaying or disrupting America’s AI warfare modernization initiatives such as F/A-XX and NGAD.
Bold promises ring hollow when we backtrack or delay our transformation programs. Our deferred results and lack of real urgency please Beijing, which has set 2035 as the year China will complete its military modernization efforts. The Pentagon, especially the Air Force and Navy, must set their budgets to deliver these critical systems more quickly. Congress, as it provides for the common defense, must provide these critical programs with the funding needed to win the military AI race, because there are no second places in warfare.
In many ways, China is already one step ahead. Beijing’s approach to civil-military fusion is alive and well. The infrastructure, techniques and processes that have made China a global manufacturing center also favor rapid military delivery and improvement.
This is evident in the maritime domain. Between 2015 and 2020, China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) outnumbered the American Navy in size, and the gap is widening.
The Office of Naval Intelligence has found that China’s shipbuilding capacity far exceeds that of the U.S., as the country’s military and commercial shipbuilding industries are substantially larger. According to the Pentagon’s China Power Report, the PLAN grew by 30 ships last year, while the U.S. added only two. This trend is likely to continue, as we have reduced our submarine purchases in 2025 and delays plague our other shipbuilding programs.
The US Air Force is not faring much better. In March, Navy Admiral John Aquilino, then commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee that “the world’s greatest navy will soon be the world’s greatest air force” and that “the scale, scope and magnitude of this security challenge cannot be underestimated.”
He’s right. China produces 100 J-20 fighter jets a year, while the US produces about 135 F-35s, of which only 60 to 70 are for our air force. As in shipbuilding, this is a recipe for second place.
It’s not just about numbers, it’s about jobs, skills, and the countless companies that develop these extraordinary machines and the technology behind them. If we don’t support American industry, we’re going to lose it.
Gary Roughead is a former officer in the United States Navy and served as the 29th Chief of Naval Operations from 2007 to 2011. Previously, he served as Commander, United States Fleet Forces Command from May 17 to September 29, 2007.
