If there’s one statistic that’s considered odd in the age of baseball analytics, it’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The idea of having a single number that determines a player’s value compared to a replacement player has become a common part of statistical diction in sports. We even have a baseline for what career total WAR gets you into the Hall of Fame – that number is 70.
Many will use this statistic as a basis for deciding who is the best player in the league and the team they are rooting for this season.
Here we look at whether this single, all-encompassing number truly reflects who the Atlanta Braves’ best player is in 2024.
For this story we will use the baseball reference WAR.
The Atlanta Braves’ WAR leader is starting pitcher Chris Sale (4.7). Sale has had by far the best season of all starters this year. If you’re debating who’s the best in the rotation, that’s true.
In the meantime, you have Marcell Ozuna who has a WAR of 4.3. Although he is worth one win less than Sale, it is safe to say that Ozuna is the best player on the team this season.
What I find odd about this stat, however, is that there was one season where he was arguably worse and had a better WAR. With the Marlins in 2017, he had a WAR of 5.6, a number that would also be better than Sale’s this season.
Seven years ago, he had a better WAR despite hitting the same number of home runs as he does now (37), but it took him 31 more games to get there. Ozuna also has a better slash line overall compared to 2017. He has a slash line of .308/.379/.588/.968 this season compared to .312/.376/.548/.924 in 2017. Only his batting average was better, and his power stats are much better now.
One could argue that he doesn’t benefit from defensive WAR like he once did, but Ozuna didn’t have a positive dWAR this year. His defense was so dangerous that he’s now a designated hitter.
The formulas for WAR are a bit of a secret, so it’s hard to say why they’re significantly different. But that difference will be an argument for who’s better.
Ozuna could win MVP and Sale could miss the Cy Young, but someone will still point to the stats and say, “Actually, yes.”
You know what? Let’s go back to the question of who is the best pitcher when we talk about who is the best player. That’s where closer Raisel Iglesias comes in. He has a 1.39 ERA and hasn’t allowed an earned run in over two months. However, he only has a WAR of 2.5 – according to the stats, he’s only half as much as Sale. Or at least much easier to replace than the starting pitcher.
But another stat, ERA+, which has a similar goal to WAR, would say he’s better than Sale. Iglesias has an ERA+ of 301, while Sale has one of 160. Here, the closer is twice as valuable as the starter. After all, he appears in more games and gives up fewer runs.
Atlanta Braves Top WAR
1. Chris Sale – 4.7
2. Marcell Ozuna – 4.3
3. Reynaldo Lopez – 4.2
4. Austin Riley – 2.8
5. Raisel Iglesias – 2.5
By the same logic, Ozuna has an OPS+ of 165, the hitter version of the statistic, so he is better as a hitter than Sale is as a pitcher.
So what’s going on?
Perhaps the reality is that WAR will not be able to determine who the best player on the team is, at least not on its own.
WAR is still relevant and should still be mentioned, but its claim to be a be-all and end-all statistic is missed.
All of the names mentioned have a good chance of being the best player name on the team and none of these names would really be wrong.
Continue to use WAR in the conversation, but keep in mind that baseball has never been and never will be a one-statistic sport.
