Since today is Sunday, we have a whole bunch of day games coming up. First pitch is scheduled for 11:35 a.m. ET, so there’s no time to waste!
So without further ado, let’s dive right into our MLB home run tips of the day.
Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+320) Bet365
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. ET
Ohtani is one of the best batters in the world and it’s rare for him to hit above the low +200s, let alone +300. The reason for this, of course, is that the Rays have a left-handed hitter on the mound in Jacob Lopez. As good as Ohtani is, he doesn’t hit as well against left-handed hitters as he does against right-handed hitters.
Still, it’s Lopez’s first major league pitch since May 5, and he’s only made three MLB appearances this season. Unfortunately for Lopez, his pitching wasn’t good in his limited time, and he was sent back down to the minors after his May 5 appearance. In total, he only pitched five innings that night, but in those five innings, he got rocked.
He also hasn’t pitched more than three innings in a single game this year, so Ohtani may only face him once. The good news is that the Rays’ bullpen has allowed the third-most home runs of any bullpen in baseball, so even if Ohtani doesn’t get Lopez a yard early, he should still have plenty of chances to do so later in the game.
As for Ohtani, as mentioned, he’s red hot at bat. Not only has he hit a home run in two consecutive games, but he has the fourth-most hard hit line drive + fly balls over the last seven days with nine. He’s hit both right- and left-handed hitters hard over the last two weeks, so there’s no hiding from him. At +320 odds, he’s a very lucrative bet to hit a home run.
Jose Ramirez Home Run (+420) Bet365
Texas Rangers vs. Cleveland Guardians, 1:40 p.m. ET
Ramirez has had a bit of a home run slump over the last few weeks, but he looks like he’s overcoming that, with a home run and another hit yesterday. In total, he had two hard hits with a launch angle of 30.6 degrees, which is right in the sweet spot for home runs.
Overall, Ramirez has had a phenomenal year, so even a small dip in performance is no cause for concern. He hit the sixth-most home runs of the year with 33 and has the 11th-best ISO rate in the league at .257. He is one of only 11 hitters with an ISO rate above .250, which FanGraphs defines as “excellent.”
Ramirez was able to hit so many home runs because of his ability to throw the ball in the air. He has the 10th highest launch angle in the league (19.6 degrees) and the seventh highest fly ball rate (48.7%).
Ramirez is also slightly better against left-handed pitchers, and that’s what he’s expected to do tonight. His ISO against LHP is .340, compared to .226 against RHP. For comparison, that’s also the fourth-highest ISO in MLB.
Rangers left-hander Cody Braford has pitched just 43 innings and allowed five home runs, but all five came against right-handers, which Ramirez will be batting against tonight.
Elly De La Cruz Home Run (+450) Caesars
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates, 1:40 p.m. ET
Although we went with De La Cruz yesterday and he didn’t convince us, he still hit the ball very hard. Today he has an excellent opponent, so we feel comfortable going with him again.
Despite not hitting a home run yesterday, De La Cruz is still third in the league with 10 hard hits line drive + fly balls, one more than Ohtani. Yesterday alone, De La Cruz had two hard hits with an average exit velocity of 97.4 mph, he just lacked the launch angle to send them over the fence. Fortunately, he has been hitting the ball in the air over the past week, so there is no need to worry about that.
De La Cruz is similar to Jose Ramirez in that he is a switch hitter. The main difference is that De La Cruz hits much better from the left side against right-handed pitchers, unlike Ramirez. De La Cruz’s ISO rate against RHP is .276, compared to .138 against LHP.
As for pitcher competition, he faces Luis L. Ortiz of the Pirates, a right-hander who has tremendous problems against left-handed pitchers. Ortiz has faced fewer left-handers than right-handers, but he has still allowed 10 of his 12 home runs against lefties. His HR/9 against lefties is 2.01, compared to 0.32 against righties.
For comparison, that’s the fourth-worst HR/9 against left-handers in the MLB.
Honorable Mention: Pete Crow-Armstrong (+680) FanDuel
Before we sign off for today, here’s an honorable mention for darts that we really like today. Crow-Armstrong has been quietly on top form lately. Like Ohtani, he’s hit home runs in back-to-back games.
He’s a left-handed pitcher with a dream matchup against a young Marlins pitcher who really struggles against lefties, Adam Oller. Small sample size, but in 12 at-bats against lefties this year, he’s allowed two home runs with a 25% barrel rate, 63% hard hit rate, and 63% fly ball rate. Crow-Armstrong is a great play at those rates.
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