Player traits can be useful in a variety of ways, from direct use to measuring a player’s performance potential in Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel.
Here we focus on the former, especially home run props.
Using our home run predictions (provided by numberFire) as a guide, here are some MLB home run prop bets that look attractive based on the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting odds and our MLB predictions may change throughout the day after this article is published. Weather may also be an issue in some locations.
Today’s best home run props
Elly De La Cruz hits a home run (+420)
The Cincinnati Reds’ five-tool phenom is showing his value in this market today.
Elly De La Cruz hits fewer home runs (22 this season) than he steals bases (61 steals in 2024), but that’s factored in at odds of over four to one here. Still, De La Cruz is currently a stunner against right-handed pitchers, posting a .968 OPS, .273 ISO, 35.7% fly ball rate and 50.6% hard hit rate over the last month of play. That’s 87 plate appearances (PAs) for the every-day shortstop.
A weak right-hander awaits him today. Luis Ortiz’s 3.56 ERA is brilliant, but an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.20 tells a more accurate story with elevated fly ball (44.0%) and hard hit rates (37.7%) behind it. Ortiz was lucky to allow only 1.07 HR/9, as his home run to fly ball ratio (9.1% HR:FB) is well below the league average (12.0%).
FanDuel Research’s daily MLB projections predict De La Cruz will hit 0.22 home runs on Sunday. If that’s true, the odds for a bombshell would be closer to +406.
Kerry Carpenter hits a home run (+390)
I mentioned Kerry Carpenter in Friday’s home run tips, but after two loud outs in this game and facing a left-handed starter for the Chicago White Sox on Saturday, the outfielder is still looking for his first home run since Wednesday.
That’s quite a dry spell considering how tough he’s currently going against right-handers. Over the last 30 days, Carpenter has posted a .979 OPS, a .400 ISO, a 55.8% fly ball rate and a 44.4% hard hit rate against them. That would make him a better fit in the middle of the New York Yankees’ lineup than in the Detroit Tigers’ weak lineup.
Closing out a weekend series with the Chicago White Sox, Carpenter faces a struggling right-hander on Sunday. Jonathan Cannon may be the Pale Hose’s best right-hander right now, which says more about them than Cannon considering the lanky pitcher has a 4.59 xERA, 7.9% barrel rate, and 1.35 HR/9 allowed. Chicago also still has the bonus of having the league’s worst bullpen (4.89 xFIP over the last 30 days).
Our predictions are good for Carpenter today, predicting 0.31 home runs. Given that expected average, we would put his odds of hitting a home run at +275.
Jhonkensy Noel hits a home run (+390)
This is the first time I’ve written about “Big Christmas” in this column, and it certainly won’t be the last time against left-handers.
Jhonkensy Noel was called up on June 26, but he hasn’t really started to hit his stride until recently. He’s a platoon outfielder for left-handed hitters at this stage of his career, but the 6-foot-3 mountain of a man has done just that, with a 1.346 OPS, .591 ISO, 47.4% fly ball rate, and 42.4% hard hit rate against lefties over the last 30 days (or 23 PAs).
He’s hit for a yard twice in the last 30 days, which has put some pressure on that line. Still, Cody Bradford seems like an excellent target for him to move on, considering the left-hander has allowed 49.6% flyball and 8.9% barrel this season. Bradford’s low HR/9 allowed rate (1.05) is more luck than skill, with 8.3% HR:FB.
We’re predicting 0.25 big flies for Noel on Sunday, which fits the range. Assuming the median is correct, we’re predicting him to be closer to +352 for a home run.
Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Discover a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for more MLB betting options? Check out all MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
