Vehicle owners in Hawaii are keeping their trucks and cars longer than ever before as expectations have declined that the local market will see a significant increase in sales this year.
According to a recent second-quarter report from Hawaii Auto Outlook, sales are expected to increase by just 1.1% in 2024, compared to an annual forecast of 3.7% in the first quarter.
The gloomy outlook comes after new registrations slumped 11.8 percent in the second quarter, bringing the mid-year decline to seven percent. In contrast, national car sales rose 3.4 percent in the first six months.
One of the main reasons for the decline is that the average age of vehicles in the state has reached an all-time high of 12.5 years as owners remain hesitant to upgrade their trucks and cars as financing and leasing costs have increased due to higher interest rates. Another reason for the drop in sales is waning consumer confidence due to presidential election uncertainty and geopolitical unrest related to conflicts between Ukraine and Russia and in the Middle East, the report said.
“Currently, affordability is a barrier to new vehicle sales, but increased inventory and increasing incentives have pushed vehicle prices down, which will boost demand,” wrote Jeffrey Foltz, editor of Hawaii Auto Outlook, in the report prepared for the Hawaii Automobile Dealers Association.
“Replacement demand and falling transaction prices will give the new car market some momentum for the remainder of 2024, while negative factors will limit growth,” Foltz added. “Despite the 7% decline in the first half of 2024, the market still has a chance to see a slight improvement for the full year compared to 2023.”
New registrations are now estimated at 47,100, compared to 48,300 in the first quarter. A positive year would mark the first increase in annual sales after two consecutive years of declines. In the first half of the year, nationwide registrations were 22,670, compared to 24,373 in the same period last year.
The first half of the year was disappointing on the islands: registrations fell by 17.8% on Kauai, 11.9% on Hawaii, 5.6% on Oahu and 3.4% on Maui.
New registrations can be representative of car sales, but the two numbers don’t always match because a buyer can purchase a vehicle one month and register it the next. The data is based on registrations from each county’s Department of Motor Vehicles.
Toyota was the best-selling brand during the six months with a market share of 27.5 percent, followed by Honda with 13.6 percent, Tesla with 7.6 percent, Ford with 6.5 percent and Nissan with 6.3 percent.
The market shares of the best-selling models in the state in the first six months were: Toyota Tacoma 6.3%, Tesla Model Y 5.9%, Toyota 4Runner 4.6%, Toyota RAV4 4.4% and Toyota Corolla 3.6%.
Alternative fuel vehicles continue to grow in popularity as the country continues its transition away from fossil fuels.
Battery electric vehicle registrations reached 14 percent of the state’s market share in the first six months of the year, compared to 13.5 percent a year earlier.
Hybrid vehicles achieved a market share of 10.7 percent in the first half of the year, compared to 7.4 percent in the same period last year. The market share of plug-in hybrids was 2.1 percent, compared to 1.5 percent.
However, the market shares of all three categories stabilized compared to the first three months of the year.
Light commercial vehicles – including vans, SUVs and pickup trucks – maintained their large lead over passenger cars, with a market share of 77% compared to 23% for passenger cars. Consumers continue to choose larger vehicles because they offer better visibility, more storage space and stable gas prices.
1st half of 2024 1st half of 2023 PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Hawaii Island 3,324 3,771 -11.9%
Kauai 1,111 1,352 -17.8%
Maui 2,752 2,848 -3.4%
Oahu 15,482 16,402 -5.6%
Total 22,670 24,373 -7.0%
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New registrations of motor vehicles (temperature curve data)
2021 54,612
2022 47,792
2023 46,592
Forecast 2024 47,100
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Market share
Top-selling brands in Hawaii in the first half of 2024:
Toyotas 27.5%
Honda 13.6%
Tesla 7.6%
Ford 6.5%
Nissan 6.3%
Hyundai 4.9%
Toyota 4.9%
Lexus 4.2%
Chevrolet4.1%
Hyundai4.0%
Source: Experian Automotive
