Now that temperatures are rising again across the country, that means home run weather is starting to turn in our favor again. For those who don’t know, higher temperatures mean the ball can travel farther, hopefully leading to more home runs.
For today, we have three MLB home run bets to wrap up. Dive in!
Kyle Schwarber Home Run (+300) BetRivers
Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies, 6:40 p.m. ET
Kyle Schwarber is in top form at the plate and is facing a starting pitcher who really struggles against left-handers: Ronel Blanco of the Astros.
First of all, Schwarber has been seeing the ball really well at the plate lately. He has made at least two hard hits in each of his last three games, including three barrels in his last two games. It’s nice to see Schwarber barreling the ball so consistently lately, and we all know what kind of rush he can put up. He hasn’t hit a home run in the last week, but with the amount of times he’s been hitting the ball, it’s safe to assume Schwarber will have a home run rush soon.
Blanco has allowed 20 home runs this year, and 13 of those 20 have come against lefties in only slightly more at-bats (52% of his ABs have been against LHH). That gives him a HR/9 of 1.66 against lefties, versus 0.94 against righties. Over the last two months, that HR/9 has also increased to 2.65.
He also throws a 4-seam fastball over 40% of the time, which is his most common pitch, and Schwarber hits 4-seamers. He has a 60% hard hit rate and 11.50% barrel rate this year, and over the last four weeks he has a 18.75% barrel rate and 58.33% hard hit rate.
Next, Schwarber will see a changeup about 30% of the time. He has a 20% barrel rate and a 50% hard hit rate against this pitch over the last four months from RHP. Today he hits one yard.
Juan Soto Home Run (+420) FanDuel
New York Yankees vs. Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET
For our second pick of the day, we’re targeting another left-hander, this time Juan Soto. Soto will be facing a left-handed pitcher, Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Despite the left-hander versus left-hander matchup, we’re not afraid of Soto, who quietly beats left-handed pitchers.
Parker admittedly hasn’t allowed many home runs against lefties, but nonetheless, this is a matchup that should favor Soto. Over the last four weeks, Soto has hit an absurd six home runs against lefties, with a barrel rate of 25%, a fly ball rate of 45%, and an ISO rate of .556.
The main reason we’re betting on Soto is because of Parker’s pitch mix, which he throws a 4-seam fastball over 50% of the time, which Soto absolutely destroys. This year, he has a 35% barrel rate and a 68% hard hit rate against 4-seam fastballs from left-handed pitchers.
Four of Soto’s six home runs against lefties came off 4-seamers. Below you can see how eight of his 13 ABs came off 4-seam FBs by LHP:
- 112.4 mph exit velocity (EV), 427 foot home run
- 105.1 mph EV, 406-foot home run
- 103.8 mph from a standing start, 393 foot flyout
- 106.6 mph EV, 406-foot home run
- 110.1 mph off the bat, 413-foot home run
- 105.2 miles per hour straight away
- 107 mph EV, 339 feet lineout
- 180 km/h in lineout
That would be four bombs over 400 feet, another overflight over 393 feet, and every single hard hit would have had a speed of over 100 miles per hour to begin with.
Next, Parker throws a slider 40% of the time, and while Soto doesn’t sink sliders as well as 4-seamers, he still has excellent stats against them this year, including a 12.50% barrel rate and a 50% hard hit rate.
Rafael Devers Home Run (+525) BetMGM
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET
For our third and final pick of the day, we’re continuing the left-handed trend and going with another left-handed bat: Rafael Devers. Devers is fortunate to be facing one of the most home run-friendly pitchers in baseball: Jose Berrios.
Berrios has allowed the second-most home runs this year (27) and also has the fifth-worst HR/9 of the year (1.55). He also throws more home runs to left-handed hitters, with 16 of his 27 home runs being hit by lefties, in slightly more at-bats against lefties (54%) than righties (46%). His HR/9 against LHH in particular is 1.70, versus 1.38 against RHH.
Berrios primarily throws sinkers (30% of the time), which is not a traditional home run pitch. Despite this, Devers hits sinkers. In fact, the last two sinkers Devers has seen were home runs, one by Merrill Kelly and another by Corbin Burnes, two good pitchers. This year, he has a 14% barrel rate, 57% hard hit rate, and .655 ISO rate against RHP sinkers.
Berrios’ second most common pitch is the 4-seam fastball (26%), which Devers has also hit against right-handers this year. He has a 14.71% barrel rate, 68% hard hit rate and .485% ISO rate against RHP 4-seamers this season.
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