Home prices continued to rise in June. S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller The national home price index rose 5.4 percent year-on-year to 325.23 in June, according to data released Tuesday.
While prices continue to rise year-over-year, June’s reading was below the 5.9% growth seen in May. June’s annualized increase is the lowest rate of home price appreciation since November 2023.
“It is still remarkable when you consider that real estate prices are at a record high and mortgage rates were still around 7% in June,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said in a statement. “Mortgage rates have fallen since June, but there are signs that even the rate drop is not enough to bring buyers back into the market. Some buyers are waiting for home prices – not just rates – to fall.”
The 20- and 10-city composite indices also posted year-on-year gains, rising 6.5% and 7.4%, respectively. All of these metrics were down from May, when the respective growth rates were 6.9% and 7.8%, respectively. On a month-on-month basis, the national index rose 0.5%.
Among the 20 cities analyzed, New York recorded the highest annual growth of 9 percent with an index value of 312.13. This was followed by San Diego (449.24) and Las Vegas (298.71) with annual increases of 8.7 percent and 8.5 percent, respectively.
At the other end of the spectrum, Portland, Oregon (332.29) again ranked lowest with an annual increase of 0.8% in June.
Looking ahead to the fall, the Case-Shiller index will play a role in politics as the presidential election becomes more exciting, said Brian D. Luke, head of commodities, real and digital assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices.
“House prices and inflation continue to feature prominently on the political agenda ahead of the election,” Luke said in a statement. “While both the housing market and inflation have slowed, the gap between the two is wider than historical averages. Our national index is averaging 2.8% above the consumer price index. That’s a full percentage point above the average over the past 50 years. Before accounting for inflation, house prices have increased by over 1,100% since 1974, but have more than doubled (111%) after accounting for inflation.”
While Sturtevant expects a seasonal decline in home prices in the fall and winter, she sees no signs that there will be a major price decline in 2024.
“Inventory levels are also expected to rise, which will help move the market toward a more balanced market and slow upward pressure on home prices,” Sturtevant said. “Some local markets where prices have risen sharply during the pandemic and inventory levels are rising rapidly may see year-over-year price declines. But in most markets, inventory levels are still low by historical standards and sellers still have the upper hand.”
