Home sales posted their biggest decline in nearly a year, even as the average U.S. home rate fell to its lowest level in five months. Potential homebuyers are awaiting clarity on the NAR agreement, the presidential election and whether mortgage rates will fall even further.
Home sales fell 6.9% in the four weeks ended August 25, the largest decline in nearly a year. This despite the average monthly U.S. housing payment falling to its lowest level since February, while the weekly average Mortgage interest rates to its lowest level in 15 months.
Sales aren’t picking up yet, as many potential homebuyers are still taking a wait-and-see approach. Redfin agents report that homebuyers are out and about touring homes, but some of them are hesitant to buy a home right now. Potential buyers are waiting for one or all of the following things:
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- Clarity regarding the NAR agreement. The new rules for negotiating brokerage fees between brokers, buyers and sellers came into force on August 17. Some potential buyers and sellers are waiting to see how these rules play out before entering the market.
- “Some buyers were likely put off by agents who falsely claimed that the new NAR rules required an exclusive buyer representation agreement just to view a home,” said Jason AleemHead of Real Estate Services at Redfin. “At Redfin, we make sure buyers know our fees before they view the property, but we would never force you to work with us before we’ve had a chance to win you over as a client.”
- Lower property prices. Even as monthly payments decline, home sales prices are only a few thousand dollars below the record highs reached in early July. That’s in part because listings are losing momentum; the total number of homes for sale posted the smallest year-over-year increase in five months.
- Lower mortgage interest rates. Some homebuyers hope that mortgage rates will fall after the Fed cuts interest rates in September. (It’s worth noting that a significant drop in mortgage rates could lead to more competition and higher home prices.)
- The result of the presidential election. Some homebuyers are wary of making big purchases given this year’s political uncertainty, believing that the outcome of the presidential election could change the course of economic, housing and other policies that influence their decision to move.
“I expect to see more buyers and sellers entering the market in a few months when everyone has a better understanding of how the new NAR rules will impact actual real estate transactions,” said Fernanda Kriese, a Redfin Premier agent in Las Vegas. “The election and the drop in mortgage rates are also holding buyers back; many of them are waiting until November in hopes of getting a lower interest rate and perhaps more homes to choose from.”
Mortgage purchase applications are +1% This suggests that at least some buyers are exiting the market, but applications are still 9% below last year’s level.
Redfin economists’ views on the real estate market can be found on Redfin’s “From our economists” Page.
Leading indicators
| Indicators of demand and activity in home buying | ||||
| Value (if applicable) | Last updated | Change from previous year | source | |
| Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.37% (28 August) | Close to the lowest level since spring 2023 | Decrease of 7.29% | Daily mortgage news |
| Weekly average of 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate | 6.46% (week ending August 22) | Lowest level since May 2023 | Decrease of 7.23% | Freddie Mac |
| Mortgage purchase applications (seasonally adjusted) | 1% more than the previous week (as of week ending August 23) | Decrease of 9% | Association of Mortgage Banks | |
| Touring activity | 6% more than at the beginning of the year (as of August 19) | At this time last year, the figure since the beginning of 2023 was 2%. | Display timea home touring technology company | |
| Google searches for “house for sale” | 10% more than in the previous month (as of August 26) | Decrease of 3% | Google Trends | |
| To ensure the accuracy of our data, we have excluded Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index this week. It will be available again next week. | ||||
Important data on the housing market
| US highlights: Four weeks until August 25, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data from over 400 U.S. metropolitan areas and are based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly real estate market data goes back to 2015. Subject to change. |
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| Four weeks until August 25, 2024 | Change from previous year | Notes | |
| Average selling price | $389,975 | 3.6% | About $1,000 more than the previous week, but $6,000 less than the all-time high of the four weeks ending July 7. |
| Average offer price | 395,500 USD | 5.5% | |
| Average monthly mortgage payment | $2,568 at a mortgage rate of 6.46% | -0.4% | Lowest since February; $258 below the all-time high of the 4 weeks ending April 28 |
| Pending Sales | 79,279 | -6.9% | Biggest decline since October 2023 |
| New listings | 89,241 | 3% | |
| Active offers | 990,630 | 16.7% | Smallest increase since April |
| Months of delivery | 3.6 | +0.7 points. | 4 to 5 Months supply is considered balanced, with a lower value indicating the seller’s market conditions. |
| Percentage of homes taken off the market within two weeks | 35.8% | Decrease of 41% | |
| Average days on market | 35 | +5 days | |
| Share of houses sold above list price | 28.6% | Decrease of 34% | |
| Share of houses with price decline | 6.8% | +1.4 points. | Highest level ever |
| Average ratio of selling price to list price | 99.1% | -0.6 points. | |
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Highlights at Metro level: Four weeks until August 25, 2024 Redfin’s metropolitan-level data includes the 50 most populous metropolitan areas in the United States. Select metropolitan areas may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy. |
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| Metropolises with the largest increases compared to the previous year | Metropolises with the largest declines compared to the previous year | Notes | |
| Average selling price | Philadelphia (15.1%)
Milwaukee (10.8%) Anaheim, California (10.1%) Nassau County, NY (9.7%) Providence, Rhode Island (8.5%) |
Austin, Texas (-2.8%)
Fort Worth, Texas (-1.5%) Tampa, FL (-0.6%) San Francisco, California (-0.5%) San Diego, California (-0.3%) San Antonio (-0.3%) Nashville, Tennessee (-0.1%) |
Rejected in 7 metropolises |
| Pending Sales | San Francisco (9.1%)
Boston (8.2%) San Jose, California (7.1%) Los Angeles (7%) Riverside, California (5.4%) |
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.3%)
Atlanta (-15.8%) Miami (-15.3%) Fort Lauderdale, FL (-15%) Tampa, FL (-14.5%) |
Increased in 11 metropolises |
| New listings | San Diego (15.2%)
Los Angeles (13.7%) San Jose, California (12.7%) Phoenix (11.1%) Montgomery County, Pennsylvania (10.9%) |
Atlanta (-16.7%)
Austin, Texas (-8.9%) San Antonio (-8.2%) Newark, NJ (-7.2%) Tampa, FL (-6.7%) |
Rejected in 14 cities |
Please note our Metric definition page for explanations of all key figures used in this report.
