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Dollar strengthens, traders expect data-rich week, yen rises


Dollar strengthens, traders expect data-rich week, yen rises

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The dollar traded near two-week highs against the euro on Tuesday as traders prepared for a data-rich week, including Friday’s U.S. jobs report, which could determine the path of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Investors will be focusing on US jobs data this week after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell last month advocated an early start to interest rate cuts in a sign of concern about a slowdown in the labor market.

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect an increase of 165,000 jobs in the US in August, compared to an increase of 114,000 in July.

Before that, the focus will be on job openings data on Wednesday and the unemployment claims report on Thursday.

An indicator of U.S. manufacturing rose slightly last month as employment improved from an eight-month low in July, but the overall trend continues to point to subdued factory activity, data showed Tuesday.

The euro was around 0.4 percent lower against the dollar at USD 1.1031 on Tuesday, after falling to a two-week low of USD 1.103375 earlier in trading.

“We could see some intraday volatility ahead of the employment data release, similar to what we are seeing today as US market participants return from Labor Day. However, I think most market participants will be looking to keep their powder dry ahead of the main event at the end of the week,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone.

Markets are pricing in a 69 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut when the Fed meets on September 17-18, while the probability of a 50 basis point cut is 31 percent, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Overall, cuts of about 100 basis points are priced in for the year.

August slide

The upcoming data will also provide clues as to whether the dollar’s decline in August was overdone or whether the dollar is in for further losses.

“A weaker jobs report would likely push the dollar lower,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at StoneX, in a note.

The dollar index, which measures the strength of the US currency against six other major currencies, fell 2.2 percent in August, its worst monthly level since November. On Tuesday, the index was 0.14 percent higher at 101.80.

The dollar fell 0.7 percent against the yen on Tuesday to 145.85 yen after the governor of the Bank of Japan reiterated in a document presented to a government committee on Tuesday that the central bank would raise interest rates further if the economy and inflation developed as policymakers currently expect.

The Japanese yen has risen 10% over the past two months, partly helped by official interventions.

“The Governor of the Bank of Japan wrote a letter to the Japanese government explaining the decision to raise interest rates in July. He also said that the BOJ would raise interest rates further ‘if the economy and prices develop as expected,'” said Kathleen Brooks, head of research at XTB.

“The yen has risen because of these comments,” she said.

The pound fell against the dollar on Tuesday as investors took profits on the pound’s August rally, its biggest monthly gain in ten months. The British currency was last down 0.4 percent at $1.30965.

The stronger U.S. dollar weighed on the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which fell on Tuesday after ending August with strong gains.

The Aussie lost about 1.2%, while the Kiwi lost 0.8%.

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