Last spring, Tucker Carlson was on the brink.

The former primetime host had been fired from Fox News, where he had made his name. From his remote home in Maine, Carlson launched a new show on what was then known as Twitter, but as his viewership plummeted, the consensus was that Carlson’s position as a news and political trendsetter, someone who could create Republican stars and destroy careers, was over.

It turned out that this was not entirely true.

Carlson’s eponymous network, which he has since built, where he conducts interviews and delivers tirades to his subscribers, certainly doesn’t have the reach of his Fox News show. But he has remained a key figure behind the scenes in Republican politics, someone who can get Trump’s ear and influence key positions. He had a headlining slot at the Republican National Convention and is embarking on a tour next month that will also include Trump’s running mate JD Vance.

“He’s a Trump confidant, and the Republicans are now Trump’s party,” says Heather Hendershot, a professor in Northwestern University’s School of Communication whose research focuses on television news and conservative and right-wing media.

That relationship has enabled Carlson to become, if not a kingmaker, then certainly a princemaker – and he played a key role in Vance’s rise to the vice presidential nomination. Vance was a frequent guest on Tucker Carlson Tonight during his campaign for Senate in Ohio, pontificating on all sorts of topics that appeal to Carlson’s far-right audience. On Carlson’s show, Vance referred to Kamala Harris and others as “childless cat ladies,” a comment that resurfaced in July.

The two remained close friends, and Carlson played a key role in one of the most important decisions Trump faced: choosing his running mate. The New York Times reported that in June, Trump was “wavering” over whether to choose Vance, instead considering the more experienced Marco Rubio or the wealthy, inoffensive Doug Burgum. Carlson intervened in bombastic fashion, warning Trump that such a move could lead to his assassination, according to the Times, and telling him that neither Rubio, the senator from Florida, nor Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, were trustworthy.

“(Trump’s decision to select Vance) is kind of backfiring for him now because Vance keeps revealing his weird attitude toward women, childless women and childless women with cats. So it’s not really helping him, and Trump’s team is certainly not happy about it,” Hendershot said.

“It’s interesting that he had Trump’s ear for it, and his reasoning was kind of strange – or odd, is the word we use now – and kind of conspiracy-theoretical.”

The conspiratorial aspect has long been key to Carlson’s appeal. And if his influence over Trump has grown – even in light of text messages that surfaced in 2023 in which Carlson said of Trump, “I hate him with a passion” – it has been because Carlson has become increasingly marginalized.

In February, he aired an interview with Vladimir Putin in which he let the Russian autocrat ramble for two hours about everything from a ninth-century Scandinavian prince to his alleged willingness to end his invasion of Ukraine. He also gave a platform to conspiracy theorist Alex Jones, who was ordered to pay $1.5 billion to the families of the Sandy Hook massacre victims after claiming the 2012 elementary school shooting was faked.

“If anything, he seems to have been doing even more crazy things in public since leaving Fox News,” said Matt Gertz, a senior fellow at Media Matters for America, a left-wing advocacy group.

“The fact that someone like that has a direct line to the former President of the United States, who could become President again, is certainly a cause for great concern.”

Carlson has maintained that direct line even as his ability to reach the public appears to have waned. His Tucker Carlson Network has just 200,000 subscribers, the Wall Street Journal reported, while at its peak his Fox News show drew millions of viewers a night, though Carlson is popular on other platforms as well: His podcast is the second most popular on Spotify, with only Joe Rogan being more popular, and his interview with Putin, while widely panned, was a numerically successful: It received more than 200 million views when Carlson posted it on X, though it’s unclear how many people watched it in full.

“His influence in the media has diminished significantly since he left Fox, but his political influence is still quite large,” Gertz said.

“Tucker Carlson was really the most powerful single figure in right-wing media. He was someone who was able to influence the Republican primaries, but also someone who was able to influence news cycles and create messages that were widely used by the right.”

According to Gertz, this is no longer the case, but Carlson remains “an influential political force.”

“His relationship with Donald Trump appears to be the key factor here. By supporting him so loudly in public, he has been able to ensure that he apparently still has the ability to contact Donald Trump directly and advise him on important issues.”

In addition to giving Trump questionable advice regarding Vance, Carlson was instrumental in bringing Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. together to meet at the Republican National Convention. Vanity Fair reported that Carlson and Donald Trump Jr. orchestrated Kennedy’s eventual withdrawal from the presidential race and his endorsement of Trump. The New York Times reported that Carlson contacted Trump and Kennedy “by three-way text message” hours after the attempted assassination of Trump. This chain of messages led to the two speaking on the phone that same evening.

Where Carlson’s influence ultimately leads will likely depend on whether Trump can win in November. But until then, despite the low ratings of Carlson’s shows and his lack of a broad public platform, his position as a key figure will be demonstrated by “Tucker Carlson Live,” a 16-day tour he will launch in September.

Trump Jr. and Vance, two of the former president’s closest confidants, will perform with Carlson in Florida and Pennsylvania, respectively. The tour is expected to be “interesting and fun as hell,” according to Carlson.

While the latter depends on the individual’s political views and tastes, Carlson’s continued influence at the top of Republican politics is certainly interesting – and could be a cause for concern should Trump be re-elected as president.