Yesterday we only got 0.05″ of rain in Otsego as two cells moved north and south of us. Our rain came in the form of light showers in the early evening. So far our precipitation total for the month is 3.27″ and for the meteorological summer is 12.48″.
Radarscope archive from August 27th
Yesterday was hot and uncomfortable, with highs of 34°C and lows of 22°C. Below is a screenshot from my weather station this afternoon. After the storm and wind front, temperatures dropped to 27°C. The hot and humid air often remains trapped here in our valley.
Weather forecast
1982: A strong cold front moves through and temperatures drop to 36 degrees in Lansing, which is a current record low for this date.
1986: Autumnal chills prevail as morning lows fall to a record low of 41 degrees in Grand Rapids and 36 degrees in Lansing, hitting record lows set in just four years.
On August 28, 2020, multiple morning showers and thunderstorms concentrated over the same areas, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain within a few hours and causing flooding throughout the Detroit metropolitan area. Isolated severe storms in the afternoon then brought damaging winds to the US 23 corridor as well as large hail (up to 2 inches near Flushing).
On August 28, 2018, a series of severe storms struck the Tri-Cities and Thumb regions, causing destructive winds that downed numerous trees and power lines.
On August 28, 2013, an EF0 tornado touched down near Brighton, Michigan. The path was 0.3 miles wide and 2.8 miles long. Peak sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained sustained
In addition, on August 28, 1992, the temperature in Flint rose to only 59 degrees!
NWS forecast
Today
40% chance of rain showers and thunderstorms, especially between 2 and 5 p.m. Mostly cloudy, high temperature around 28 °C. Light and variable wind becoming west-northwest at 8 to 12 km/h in the morning.
Tonight
Before 8 p.m. there is a 20 percent chance of rain showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, low around 18 °C. North wind around 10 km/h, becoming east-northeast after midnight.
Thursday
Partly sunny, high temperature around 30 °C. East-northeast wind 4.8 to 8 km/h.
Thursday night
After 2 a.m. there is a 30% chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. East wind around 6 mph.
Friday
Showers and thunderstorms possible, then showers and a possible thunderstorm after 2 p.m. Partly sunny, high around 80 degrees. South wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west-southwest in the afternoon. Gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation 70%.
Friday night
Showers are likely before 8 p.m. Mostly cloudy, low around 60. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Saturday
Sunny, high around 82.
Saturday night
Sure, lows around 58.
Sunday
Sunny, high around 78.
Sunday night
Mostly clear, low around 47.
Labor Day
Sunny, high around 72°F.
Monday night
Mostly clear, low around 46.
Tuesday
Sunny, high temperature about 74 degrees.
Discussion of the forecast
- Patchy Fog through north, showers and storms through the south Unsettled weather including showers and storms continue to move along the very southern tier of Michigan this morning. These showers will persist, though will continue to weaken through the morning. Calm winds, dropping temps and recent rainfall through north should allow for patchy fog to form near and north of Big Rapids, including along the US 10 corridor. Expect this patchy fog to lift and dissipate mid to late morning. A weak upper level trough will ripple through the Upper Great Lakes today, this will bring another chance for showers and storms this afternoon and evening. Cooler air through the north, along with low to mid high pressure, will stifle convection areas north of I 96. However, a persistent mid level moisture along with the before mentioned trough should allow for conditions just unstable and moist enough for showers and storms, mainly along and south of the I 94 corridor. Storms are not expected to become severe. Conditions will improve into Thursday with fair weather into Friday. Temperatures will be in the low to mid 80s which is only slightly above normal. - Chance for Precipitation Centered on Friday and Sunday A trough currently seen in water vapor imagery over the Pacific Northwest will move through Southern Canada and the Great Lakes between Thursday night and Friday night. A cold front will progress through the area as well during this time. Instability surges ahead of the front on Friday as surface dew points increase to around 70F once again. Cooler temperatures aloft associated with an upper trough moving through combined with the low level moisture allows MUCAPE values to reach 2000-3000 j/kg. So, showers and storms are both expected in the Thursday night through Friday night time frame with severe weather a possibility on Friday depending on the timing of the front. 30-40 knots of deep layer shear will provide the organization for stronger to possibly severe storms. We have currently been placed in a Marginal Risk by SPC for severe storms. Another cold front will move through the area Saturday night into Sunday and this front will change our airmass from summer to early fall. Mostly showers are expected with the frontal passage, but cannot rule out an isolated storm as the ECMWF has CAPE increasing to around 500 j/kg. We are not expecting significant rain totals with these two precipitation events as the cold front will be progressive. 5 day total QPF valid through 12Z on Monday is essentially a half inch or less. - Temperatures Cool Through The Weekend and into Early Next Week Temperatures will remain summer like through Friday when 850mb temperatures will be up around +19C. Highs ahead of the front will push towards 90F down towards Jackson. Temperatures cool into the weekend when the GFS has 850mb temps dropping to +6C late in the weekend. Highs will top out in the 70s on Sunday and only around 70 on Monday. In fact our gridded forecast for Monday has highs in the upper 60s up along U.S. 10. A stark change from the 90s highs that were recorded yesterday across our forecast area. It is that time of year when the first fall air masses of the year drop south out of Canada.
