Note: With EA Sports’ College Football 25 bringing college football back to the video game world, Deseret News is simulating every BYU game against an FBS opponent this season.
BYU travels to Dallas in Week 2 as a double-digit underdog to face SMU.
This is an important early-season matchup for the Cougars as they look to return to the postseason in 2023 after a year off, and the Mustangs will provide a challenge early in the season.
How big is the challenge?
To answer this question, we turned to EA Sports’ College Football 25.
The Deseret News ran a simulation of Friday’s game – and it was a close duel throughout.
How the simulation was structured
There were a few basic rules: After some testing and adjustments, I set the simulation to 12-minute quarter hours—with the option to adjust this in future simulations if necessary—and then let the computer simulate without user intervention.
Injuries and changes to the squad list were also taken into account.
For the BYU-SMU game, that meant using Jake Retzlaff as QB1 for BYU – in the video game, Gerry Bohanon is the higher-rated quarterback, so I swapped the two in the rankings.
Aside from changing some backup positions due to injuries, the biggest change for the Mustangs was primarily sticking with Preston Stone at quarterback.
In the real world, the Mustangs alternate between Stone and Kevin Jennings, but since there was no user intervention and I couldn’t adjust the depth chart during a simulation, just having Stone play the entire game worked.
How did the simulation between BYU and SMU go?
Final result: SMU 38, BYU 33
Key game: Early in the fourth quarter, after BYU had closed a double-digit deficit in the third quarter to within five points at 31-26, the Cougars got a stop on their side of the field after an interception by Retzlaff. Isaiah Bagnah forced a punt with a sack on first down.
However, the Cougars’ subsequent possession of the ball again caused problems with losing the ball.
Retzlaff attempted to throw the ball to Kody Epps in the flat, but SMU’s Cale Sanders Jr. jumped on the route and intercepted Retzlaff’s second consecutive pass. Sanders returned the ball 46 yards and scored on a pick six, giving the Mustangs a 38-26 lead with 7:25 left.
This is how the game went: BYU only took the lead once, but the Cougars remained just one point behind the Mustangs for much of the game.
Both teams scored three goals in the first half, with BYU trailing 17-13 at halftime.
The Cougars briefly led 13-10 with 1:14 minutes left before halftime after Will Ferrin scored a 21-yard field goal.
SMU struck quickly, however, as Jordan Hudson (who had a monster game) caught a 73-yard touchdown pass on the second play of the ensuing drive to put the Mustangs back in the lead.
The Cougars had a chance to take the lead just before halftime when Retzlaff quickly brought BYU into the red zone. After three consecutive passes – two incomplete and one in front of the end zone – Ferrin missed a 21-yard field goal that would have tied the game at one point.
In the second half, BYU punted on its first possession of the third inning and then had to catch up.
Stone methodically led the Mustangs down the field on their first drive of the second half and scored on a 10-yard pass from the quarterback to make it 24-13 for SMU.
The next three possessions also ended in touchdowns – two for BYU and one for SMU. Both Cougar points came on passes to tight end Keanu Hill of 4 and 26 yards, although BYU failed a 2-point conversion attempt after the first touchdown that would have made it a 3-point game.
Hudson, meanwhile, caught a long ball in the back of the end zone between those BYU touchdowns and scored a 51-yard touchdown.
The score was 31-26 at the start of the fourth quarter.
BYU forced a punt and had a chance to regain the lead early in the fourth inning, but Retzlaff’s first interception ended that chance.
This led to a defensive stop by the Cougars, followed by the Mustangs’ costly pick six that gave them enough of a lead to win the game.
BYU responded with a 75-yard drive that included a 33-yard catch by Parker Kingston on fourth-and-11 to bring the Cougars to the Mustangs’ 5-yard line.
After Retzlaff was sacked on the first attempt and goal, he scored a 15-yard touchdown against Keelan Marion and made it 38-33 with 2:23 minutes left.
From there, SMU ran out the clock, using a 40-yard pass to Hudson and a strong running attack to keep BYU from regaining possession.
Star players: For SMU, Stone completed 19 of 22 passes for 358 yards and three touchdowns, while Hudson caught six passes for 217 yards and three touchdowns.
BYU was led by Retzlaff, who threw for 494 yards and three touchdowns, although both interceptions in the fourth quarter cost him dearly.
LJ Martin scored a 6-yard touchdown run and added 139 rushing yards, while Chase Roberts had 12 catches for 186 yards and Hill contributed six catches for 100 yards and the two touchdowns.
Final statistics: There wasn’t much defense in this simulation – the Cougars finished the game with 605 yards and SMU with 494.
BYU had trouble finishing offenses in the first half, however, and they only had 13 points at halftime despite reaching SMU’s red zone on every possession in the first half.
The Mustangs, on the other hand, never lost the ball and converted 6 of 10 third downs. BYU, on the other hand, converted 7 of 13 third downs.
