The Atlanta Braves come into this series because the Toronto Blue Jays missed a huge opportunity to pull off a sweep against a Rockies team that is already looking ahead to 2025. While that obviously applies to the Blue Jays too, considering who has been getting the most playing time for them lately, this is no ordinary last-place team.
Despite starting this month with three straight losses, the Jays finished August with a 16-12 record—their best month of the season so far. They’ve hit .500 batting average since the All-Star break, and their offense has been stellar since the break as well. The Blue Jays as a team have a batting average of .254/.320/.44 since the break, with a combined wOBA of .327 and a team wRC+ of 115. That’s largely due to players like Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger consistently performing well at bat during that time, but also because Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went into supernova mode in the second half.
He’s hit an astonishing .419/.489/.813 since the break, with a wOBA of .532 and a wRC+ of 257. He has the highest wRC+ in baseball since the break, which is really saying something considering the performance of Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. Atlanta’s pitching staff has been excellent this season, but it’s going to be a tough test for them to keep Vladito and this Blue Jays lineup in check.
Friday, September 6, 7:20 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Southeast
LHP Max Fried (24 GS, 140 IP, 117 ERA, 108 FIP, 22.4 K%, 8.6 BB%)
Fried comes into this game against the Blue Jays having allowed at least three runs in six of his last eight games. In fact, he has allowed at least five runs in four of those games. Granted, he hasn’t allowed five runs in a game since his appearance at Coors Field on August 10, but it’s been a rollercoaster ride nonetheless. In that eight-game span, Fried has a 115 ERA and a 106 FIP with a 23.5 percent strikeout rate but a 10.2 percent walk rate. With the Blue Jays’ resurgent lineup coming to town, it would be huge if Fried can come back and find his A-game for this game in particular.
RHP Kevin Gausman (27 GS, 157 IP, 101 ERA-, 95 FIP-, 22 K%, 7.1 BB%)
Our old friend Kevin Gausman is back in town, and he’s had a rollercoaster ride of his own lately. On August 13, Gaustman pitched seven scoreless innings in Anaheim to help the Blue Jays win. Six days later, he allowed four runs in five innings against the Reds. He then trounced the Angels again, pitching seven innings, allowing just one run and 10 strikeouts. But after that, he allowed two runs and four walks while throwing 5.2 innings in a loss to the Twins. While the walks may be a little out of character, the inconsistency has been there all season. If the Braves catch him on a bad day, it could be a productive night for the home team.
Saturday, September 7, 7:20 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Southeast
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (16 GS, 92.2 IP, 88 ERA-, 78 FIP-, 27.6 K%, 5.0 BB%)
Schwellenbach has further established himself as one of the best rookie pitchers in baseball this season. Although his last start ended in controversy due to a decision to keep him in the game a little longer than necessary, you still can’t really complain that he made it to the sixth inning and allowed just two runs and only walked one batter at Citizens Bank Park. Schwellenbach will now look to match that at home, as he has actually posted better results on the road (3.53 ERA, 2.48 FIP) than he has at home (3.89 ERA, 3.91 FIP).
LHP José Berríos (28 GS, 170.1 IP, 89 ERA-, 116 FIP-, 19.3 K%, 6.8 BB%)
It’s been a tale of two halves for the Blue Jays, and that’s definitely been the case for José Berríos this season. In the first half, Berríos started 20 times and finished with a 99 ERA and a 125 FIP. Since the break, however, Berrios has a 65 ERA and a 97 FIP, and he’ll come into this game having pitched six scoreless innings against the Twins on August 31. Since the All-Star break, he’s pitched seven innings three times and allowed just one run, so he’s definitely been on the ball since the break. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another pitcher’s duel this Saturday night.
Sunday, September 8, 1:35 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Southeast
LHP Chris Sale (26 GS, 160.2 IP, 59 ERA-, 51 FIP-, 32.4 K%, 5.4 BB%)
We here at Battery Power will break the record for the number of times you can say “What more can you say” about Chris Sale, but seriously, what more can you say about this guy? He’s going to win the NL Cy Young Award, he’s probably going to get NL MVP votes, and he’s going to be facing a Blue Jays franchise that he’s had quite a bit of success against in the past. Sale got the Braves going in the final stretch here, even if he didn’t play his best game on any night, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t step up for a game the Braves will most likely need.
RHP Yariel Rodríguez (17 GS, 68.1 IP, 114 ERA, 108 FIP, 23.4 K%, 11.2 BB%)
The good news for Rodríguez is that he failed to score in his last appearance. The bad news is that he lasted just three innings in this start, and that’s after allowing six runs against the Red Sox on August 27, five runs against the Reds on August 21, and four runs against the Cubs on August 16. While Rodríguez certainly has some good offspeed skills and has done a good job of avoiding pressure throughout this season, it’s very obvious that he’s coming into this game in a somewhat vulnerable position. Still, this Braves lineup has proven to be a cure for some pitchers from time to time, so it’s no guarantee that the Braves will show up and prove themselves against this guy.
