There are three problem areas in the tropics. Out in the open Atlantic, wave number one, which is further west, is weaker and moves further south in the Caribbean.

Wave number two, which is closer to Africa, could develop into a fairly strong wave, but shows early signs that it will take a more northerly route and thus remain far out in the ocean.

That leaves the third wave, which we’ve been tracking since last week. The models stubbornly failed to help us resolve that forecast as it crossed the Caribbean, but over the last few days they’ve been very consistent in predicting a low pressure system developing in the western Gulf. The NHC now has a probability of up to 80%, and the models show that this development could occur Sunday into Tuesday.

If this system were to be named, it would be Francine, replacing Florence from the 2018 list (the list repeats every six years), as Florence was the wettest storm the Carolinas have ever experienced.

If the system doesn’t get a name, the one in the ocean certainly will. As I’ve seen over the last week, there’s no model that ever put the system in South Florida, and that hasn’t changed at all, but any system that moves west of us can bring moisture from the south.

At the same time, a cold front is approaching from the north. This combination could lead to higher chances of rain from Thursday to Saturday, depending on where exactly the storm is located and how far south the front advances.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season comes next week on Tuesday, September 10th.