FRISCO, Texas — Will the Dallas Cowboys suffer a hangover? When a team collapses like Dallas did in January’s unforgivable wild-card loss, you wonder if it can simply pick up where it left off after three straight 12-win seasons. Add in the possibility that Dak Prescott and Mike McCarthy will be in the final year of their contracts, and it’s realistic to think the franchise could take a significant step back.

But you don’t get that feeling when you’ve been around the team for the last seven weeks. I mean, just look at the way McCarthy and Prescott walked to practice on Thursday.

Everyone seems to be in a good mood pic.twitter.com/tCfyyGC98d

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) 5 September 2024

This group seems to have put the disappointment of losing to the Green Bay Packers behind them and is focused on building another season of double-digit wins. Even if that happens, the Cowboys will be judged on their results in January. For now, though, all signs point to them being one of the top teams in the NFC again.

Here are some other thoughts I’ve had after watching the Cowboys for the past month and a half.

Running back situation

As the Cowboys begin their season, Ezekiel Elliott is ranked as the No. 1 running back. Elliott will likely start on the first team offense for Sunday’s road game against the Cleveland Browns. But I’m predicting Rico Dowdle, ranked No. 2, will lead the team in rushing. He was noticeably fit and looked like an improved pass catcher. Dowdle is three years younger than Elliott and had 1,969 fewer rushing attempts and 339 fewer receptions in the NFL. Elliott should enter December as fresh as possible. To do that, Dowdle will have to carry the bigger load. That doesn’t mean he’ll have a clear advantage in touches and yards, but I expect him to have more. My prediction is that Dowdle will get 13 to 15 rushing attempts per game and Elliott will get more like 10 to 12. Elliott had a career-low 10.8 runs per game last season with the New England Patriots. During his 2022 season in Dallas, he averaged 15 points per game.

After a season away from Dallas, Ezekiel Elliott set career lows in runs, yards and touchdowns last season with New England. (Jason Parkhurst / USA Today)

Get better at passing

We know CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson are the favorites to be Dallas’ top three pass catchers. But who’s next? Jalen Brooks finished training camp strong. KaVontae Turpin should get more touches. But I’m betting on Jalen Tolbert as the No. 4 pick. His time with Prescott in the offseason was probably key. As Prescott pointed out during camp, the player who spends the most time with him in the offseason usually has a great year. Although in years past that’s been Lamb and Cedrick Wilson Jr., this year it’s been Tolbert. “I trust him super, super big,” Prescott said. “I trust him on every route, no matter where, no matter who.” Tolbert went from two catches in his rookie season to 22 last year. My prediction for this year is 35-40.

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Help with the pass rush

Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are the two players every team is looking to slow down the game. Parsons is still on the rise. He could have his best season as new defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer has used him more than ever. Lawrence is still playing at a high level. But who will step in for Dorance Armstrong and Dante Fowler Jr.? Sam Williams was expected to take that lead until he suffered a season-ending knee injury early in training camp. Fortunately for the Cowboys, freshman Marshawn Kneeland appears ready to take the third spot. Parsons and Lawrence have been raving about him over the last month. Although he never had more than 4 1/2 sacks during a college season, Kneeland is my pick for the second-best sack on the team with 6 1/2. Armstrong was second last year with 7 1/2. The year before that, he was second with 8 1/2.

How many more years?

This year feels like it’s Zack Martin’s last. The nine-time Pro Bowler hasn’t wanted to discuss the topic recently, but he’d probably like to play at a high level. He still does, as he’s entering the final year of his contract. Of course, things could change depending on how this season plays out, but that’s just the feeling I have. I don’t have the same feeling about Lawrence, who was also in the 2014 NFL Draft. He’s also entering the final year of his current contract, but he’d probably prefer to play for a few more years.

One of my favorite things about covering the Cowboys is the One Star Cowboys Podcast shows during the week with @SaadYousuf126, @ktfuntweetsAnd@KentGarrison.

Here’s our annual season preview! Check it out! https://t.co/q6izSHce4v

— Jon Machota (@jonmachota) 4 September 2024

Speaking of offensive line…

What can we expect from this group that replaced veterans Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz with rookies Tyler Guyton and Cooper Beebe? Right tackle Terence Steele summed it up this way when I asked him this week: “We’re a physical bunch. Most of us are pretty young. We’re hungry. We come flying off the ball. It’s going to be fun.” The style of training in camp doesn’t give a good sense of how well an offensive line will play early in a season. They’re trying to prepare for the season, but they’re also doing everything they can to stay off the floor. NFL games are more physical, so we’ll know a lot more Sunday afternoon. But my guess is if this group stays healthy, it can eventually be just as good, if not better, than last year. There will be growing pains, but they seem to have found their left tackle and center for the future.

The Cowboys have done a great job of keeping quiet about the new kickoff rules. With John Fassel in charge, there will be surprises. Turpin should benefit from that. But I wonder how much Vaughn will be involved in that area. He’s been working on his return in practice. I’m not sure how much that will happen in the beginning, but I wonder how much Fassel will try to work on creative returns involving Vaughn and Turpin.

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Newbies

The Cowboys didn’t want to start the season without DaRon Bland. A trio of Bland, Trevon Diggs and Jourdan Lewis should give Zimmer plenty of confidence in the back row of his defense. Dallas won’t see that group together until Week 5 at the earliest. But rookie Caelen Carson seems up to the challenge of being thrown into the starting lineup. I’m not saying he’ll be the next Bland, but it looks like the Cowboys found another cornerback with starting qualities toward the end of the draft. Carson stood out a lot in camp. Don’t be surprised if he does well on Sunday. He’ll likely be tested early. What was striking in camp was the immediate impact rookies like Carson, Guyton, Beebe, Kneeland and Marist Liufau can have. That feeling about last year’s rookie class wasn’t there at this point. Before his injury, DeMarvion Overshown was the only member of that rookie class who seemed poised to make a big impression in year one. This year’s rookie class feels more like 2020, when Lamb, Diggs, Biadasz and Neville Gallimore all played notable roles in their first year.

(Top photo: Brad Mills / USA Today)