What’s new this Sunday:

The low pressure system in the Bay of Campeche is showing better organization this Sunday. The National Hurricane Center gave it the designation “Potential Tropical Cyclone 6” at 4 p.m. Sunday. It already has tropical storm-force winds of 50 mph and is moving northwest at 5 mph, but unless the center of circulation closes, it will not be named Francine. It could develop into Tropical Storm Francine in the next two days. Tropical storm warnings have also been issued for parts of the Mexican Gulf Coast, as the system is forecast to be close to land before drifting northeast.

Where to go:

The tropical tracks have the storm moving generally north in the Gulf on Sunday and Monday. A right turn is forecast on Tuesday, heading toward us and Louisiana. This track reminds me of Hurricane Nicholas in 2021. Nicholas had a major impact on Matagorda Bay and our coastal cities, but not a major impact inland. Nicholas was also a Category 1 hurricane that intensified quickly. Please don’t assume this will happen, but this is what it looks like on Sunday.

Impacts on Southeast Texas:

Our impacts depend on two things. First, Houston will get more rain if this remains disorganized or weak. If it strengthens into a strong tropical storm or hurricane, the impacts will be closer to the center of the storm. Second, all current data suggests that our coastal cities will be hit the hardest because the center is expected to be closer to the coast. Note the difference between the two graphs on rainfall totals. With the center near Matagorda, 5 inches of rain is possible on our coast. If Louisiana gets a direct hit, our rainfall amounts will be much lower.

What we need to prepare for now:

With the current situation, we need to prepare for flooding. Southeast Texas could see heavy rain as early as Tuesday. The days when flooding is possible are Tuesday and Wednesday. The farther west or left of the center, the more rain there will be. If the storm turns to the right early, there will be no flooding. The reason for this is that we are on the clean or weak side of the storm. The right part of a storm is the dirty or strong side. With Beryl, we were on the strong/dirty side.

Here’s what I think:

If you’ve read this far, you deserve to know what I think. Unless the track changes drastically as it develops into a low pressure system or storm, Houston won’t get much more than some rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. I believe our coastal cities will feel the effects of gusty winds and dangerous seas. It’s too early to know what storm surge or tides will look like since we don’t have a formed system yet. However, once that happens, I’ll let you know. Also, I believe it will be a Category 1 hurricane. There is dry air north of the low pressure system, but I don’t think that will prevent it from developing into a hurricane. The model prediction of it developing into a hurricane is 10%. I’m also including the ICON, a German model, and the artificial intelligence model images below. Both have been consistent in timing and placement for more than a week. My next update will be tomorrow.