With both starters struggling to score no hits, we’re aiming for an over in the first five innings. The total score of the entire game is also in play, but with both bullpens being pretty strong, that’s not so advisable, according to today’s MLB tips.
The Chicago Cubs have five NL wildcard games left and a few weeks to play, but tonight they face the Los Angeles Dodgers.
My Cubs vs. Dodgers predictions aren’t biased toward either side considering how poorly both starters have performed, so tonight’s MLB picks will focus on first-half totals.
Prediction for Cubs vs Dodgers
My best bet
First five innings over 5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
My analysis
The Chicago Cubs offense has shown promise lately, ranking sixth in wRC+ over the last 14 days, and we’ve seen a number of good connections from this team earlier in the year.
In that time, Chicago has posted a .268 batting average while continuing to post a high walk rate, as it has for a month now. It’s struggled a bit to limit strikeouts and has only .140 isolated power, but Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler should help the Cubs considering how poorly he’s been performing recently.
Buehler only allowed two earned runs in his last start against the lowly Los Angeles Angels, but both came on solo home runs. He also managed two walks, giving him a total of 10 runs in 17 innings in four starts since returning from injury. He now has an incredibly poor expected batting average of .280 and an expected slugging percentage of .458 in those games. For comparison, the respective league averages are .245 and .406.
With a patient approach and an eye for contact, the Cubs should have a successful night against Buehler. Unfortunately, that may not be enough for Kyle Hendricks.
The Dodgers enter this game ranked fourth in OPS against groundball pitchers, but trail in batting average (ninth). Hendricks has a poor .291 xBA and .454 xSLG for the season, numbers that have only gotten worse since early August at .308 and .471, respectively.
LA is now fully healthy again and has stabilized at the plate over the last two weeks with a .274 average and .184 ISO. While the Dodgers haven’t issued as many walks as we’re used to, that should actually help them against a pitcher they’re looking to attack with swings.
The Dodgers bullpen continues to be incredibly strong and Chicago’s stable posted a surprising 3.08 ERA in the second half, so I don’t want to suffer in the late innings and will opt for the first half of this game.
Selection by Shohei Ohtani: Hit Parade
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 hits (+160 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Hendricks’ only start against the Dodgers this season didn’t go according to plan, as he allowed five runs on eight hits and two walks. After just two batters, Shohei Ohtani greeted him with a double deep into the gap. He added a two-run homer against Hendricks later in the game, and with that, I think we can bet the MVP favorite will start again here.
Ohtani has hit the second-most home runs against groundball pitchers this season and is only two total bases behind the league leader in that category as well. He’s batting .307 in the split and has a .632 slugging percentage. I think we can be aggressive here and skip his total bases, which are inflated to -150 or more.
The Japanese hitter has now hit multiple hits twice in the last three games and nine times in the last 17 games. While I’m curious to see if he can get a lot of hits or even a double, I think the best value here is multiple hits in a high-scoring game that should earn him five plate appearances.
Cubs vs Dodgers – Same Game Combo (SGP)
F5 Over 5.5
Shohei Ohtani 2+ hits
Dansby Swanson 1+ results
Hendricks won’t be the only pitcher struggling, and we’ll be rewarded for getting a hitter in on both sides to improve our chances.
Dansby Swanson, who has a slash line of .333/.407/.667 over his last 13 games, will be my favorite. That’s been a long time coming considering he continues to hold an xBA of around .250 in a rather unfortunate season.
Swanson remains one of the Cubs’ best heater-mashers, hitting .266 against all fastballs with a .283 xBA, and he’ll have fun against Buehler, who has thrown some version of a fastball 66.5% of the time this season. And it was very hittable.
Whether he’s a four-seamer, cutter or sinker, Swanson should hold his own. He’s 5-of-17 (.294) against Buehler with a .338 xBA in his career, and many of those matchups came when Buehler was worlds better. Bet on Swanson to stay hot in the chorus of other bets we’ve covered.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Dodgers odds
Cubs vs Dodgers Live Odds
Opening odds for Cubs vs. Dodgers
- Money line: Chicago +160 | Los Angeles -190
- Execute line: Chicago +1.5 (-125) | Los Angeles -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)
Cubs vs Dodgers Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- The Dodgers started at about -190 on the moneyline and there was little movement as they remain clear favorites.
- LA has claimed 86% of the moneyline bets and 84% of the cash at DraftKings.
- The total has risen over the past 24 hours, opening at 9.5, briefly falling to nine runs and jumping to 10 on Monday afternoon.
- Although only 55% of tickets are “Over”, it accounts for 85% of sales.
Cubs vs Dodgers Trend
Trend to Know: The Chicago Cubs have achieved a first five innings (F5) team total over in 25 of their last 38 games (+10.55 units / 23% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Dodgers here.
Match information Cubs vs Dodgers
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, California |
| Date: | Monday, 9.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, SportsNet LA |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (3-11 6.60 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Walker Buehler (1-4, 5.67 ERA) |
Cubs vs Dodgers: Latest injuries
Cubs vs Dodgers Weather
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