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A swimming analysis of the host country


A swimming analysis of the host country

Given the many rumors that the swimming pool in Paris was “slow” during the Olympic Games and the Leon Marchand breaking four Olympic records in front of a home crowd, I wondered: How much does the host nation’s pool influence local swimmers? Whether you’re competing in your home pool at a high school or college meet or representing your country at the Olympics in your home country, swimming in front of a familiar crowd is a feeling of pride.

So how can familiar surroundings help a swimmer’s performance? Let’s take a look at some data from world records and previous Olympics to see if anything stands out.

WORLD RECORDS

We saw Kristof Milak broke the world record in the 200m butterfly in front of a roaring crowd in Budapest, and we recently felt the energy and passion of the French fans who heard “Allez les Bleus” every time a French swimmer took to the start line. Several swimmers have broken world records on familiar ground, raising some questions about what exactly drove these swimmers to swim so fast. The following long course world records were broken by a swimmer in his home country:

Men

Cesar Cielo:
  • 50 Freestyle (20.91) – Brazilian Championships 2009; São Paulo, Brazil
Kliment Kolesnikov:
  • 50 Backstroke (23.55) – Russian Cup 2023; Kazan, Russia
Kristof Milak:
  • 200 m butterfly (1:50.34) – 2022 World Championships; Budapest, Hungary

Women

Ariarne Titmus:
  • 200 m freestyle (1:52.55) – Australian Olympic Qualifier 2024; Brisbane, Australia
Katie Ledecky:
  • 1500 m freestyle (15:20.48) – 2018 TYR Pro Swim Series; Indianapolis, USA
Regan Smith:
  • 100 m backstroke (57.13) – US Olympic Qualifier 2024; Indianapolis, USA
Kaylee McKeown:
  • 200m Backstroke (2:03.14) – 2023 NSW State Championships; Sydney, Australia
Yevgeniya Chikunova:
  • 200 m Breaststroke (2:17.55) – Russian Championships 2023; Kazan, Russia
Sarah Sjostrom:
  • 50 Butterfly (24.43) – Swedish Championships 2014; Borås, Sweden
Gretchen Walsh:
  • 100 m butterfly (55.18) – US Olympic qualification 2024; Indianapolis, USA
Liu Zige:
  • 200 m butterfly (2:01.81) – 2009 Chinese National Games; Jinan, China
Summer McIntosh:
  • 400 IM (4:24.38) – 2024 Canadian Trials; Toronto, Canada

With over half of women’s world records broken in the record holder’s home country, something must be said about the competition venue. There is no clear answer to the question of what drives a swimmer to break a world record in her own country. Perhaps it is the convenience of competing close to home, or the added pressure of competing in front of a home crowd, or even just the desire to be included in an international team to compete for one’s country (many of the above records were broken at an international team test).

OLYMPIC PERFORMANCE

Now, looking at the highest level, does the added knowledge of competing in the Olympics in your home country affect your total medal count? This year, host country France won seven medals in the pool, four from Leon Marchandone each by Anastasia Kirpichnikova and Florent Manaudouand another in the men’s 400m medley relay. They took 64 medals across all sports, 31 more than the 33 they took in Tokyo. Their seven medals in the swimming group are a significant increase in medals compared to 2021, when Manaudou took her only medal. We won’t know until 2028 if France can continue this streak, but we can look to past host countries to see if there’s a trend. Here are the last 10 Olympic hosts and how they fared in terms of overall medal count as well as in the swimming group.

Olympic Games 2024 in Paris

Host country 2024: France
Total medals (2024) Total medals (2021) Percent change (Tokyo to Paris)
64 33 93.94%
Swimming medals (2024) Swimming medals (2021) Percent change (Tokyo to Paris)
7 1 600.00%

2021 Olympic Games in Tokyo

Host country 2021: Japan
Total medals (2024) Total medals (2021) Total medals (2016) Percent change (Rio to Tokyo) Percent change (Tokyo to Paris)
45 58 41 41.46% -22.41%
Swimming medals (2024) Swimming medals (2021) Swimming medals (2016) Percent change (Rio to Tokyo) Percent change (Tokyo to Paris)
1 3 7 -57.14% -66.67%

2016 Olympic Games in Rio

Host country 2016: Brazil
Total medals (2021) Total medals (2016) Total medals (2012) Percent change (London to Rio) Percent change (Rio to Tokyo)
21 19 17 11.76% 10.53%
Swimming medals (2021) Swimming medals (2016) Swimming medals (2012) Percent change (London to Rio) Percent change (Rio to Tokyo)
3 1 2 -50.00% 200.00%

2012 Olympic Games in London

Host country 2012: Great Britain
Total medals (2016) Total medals (2012) Total medals (2008) Percent change (Beijing to London) Percent change (London to Rio)
67 65 51 27.45% 3.08%
Swimming medals (2016) Swimming medals (2012) Swimming medals (2008) Percent change (Beijing to London) Percent change (London to Rio)
6 3 6 -50.00% 100.00%

2008 Olympic Games in Beijing

Host country 2008: China
Total medals (2012) Total medals (2008) Total medals (2004) Percent change (Athens to Beijing) Percent change (Beijing to London)
92 100 63 58.73% -8.00%
Swimming medals (2012) Swimming medals (2008) Swimming medals (2004) Percent change (Athens to Beijing) Percent change (Beijing to London)
10 6 2 200.00% 66.67%

2004 Olympic Games in Athens

Host country 2004: Greece
Total medals (2008) Total medals (2004) Total medals (2000) Percent change (Sydney to Athens) Percent change (Athens to Beijing)
3 16 13 23.08% -81.25%
Swimming medals (2008) Swimming medals (2004) Swimming medals (2000) Percent change (Sydney to Athens) Percent change (Athens to Beijing)
0 0 0 N/A N/A

2000 Olympic Games in Sydney

Host country 2000: Australia
Total medals (2004) Total medals (2000) Total medals (1996) Percent change (Atlanta to Sydney) Percent change (Sydney to Athens)
50 58 41 41.46% -13.79%
Swimming medals (2004) Swimming medals (2000) Swimming medals (1996) Percent change (Atlanta to Sydney) Percent change (Sydney to Athens)
15 18 12 50.00% -16.67%

1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta

1996 Host country: USA
Total medals (2000) Total number of medals (1996) Total number of medals (1992) Percent change (Barcelona to Atlanta) Percent change (Atlanta to Sydney)
93 101 108 -6.48% -7.92%
Swimming medals (2000) Swimming medals (1996) Swimming medals (1992) Percent change (Barcelona to Atlanta) Percent change (Atlanta to Sydney)
33 26 27 -3.70% 26.92%

1992 Olympic Games in Barcelona

1992 Host country: Spain
Total number of medals (1996) Total number of medals (1992) Total medals (1988) Percent change (Seoul to Barcelona) Percent change (Barcelona to Atlanta)
17 22 4 450.00% -22.73%
Swimming medals (1996) Swimming medals (1992) Swimming medals (1988) Percent change (Seoul to Barcelona) Percent change (Barcelona to Atlanta)
0 1 1 0.00% -100.00%

1988 Olympic Games in Seoul

1988 Host country: South Korea
Total number of medals (1992) Total medals (1988) Total medals (1984) Percent change (Los Angeles to Seoul) Percent change (Seoul to Barcelona)
29 33 19 73.68% -12.12%
Swimming medals (1992) Swimming medals (1988) Swimming medals (1984) Percent change (Los Angeles to Seoul) Percent change (Seoul to Barcelona)
0 0 0 N/A N/A

Looking at medal data from recent Olympic Games, hosting the Games appears to have a lasting effect on a country’s overall medal count: nine of the last ten host countries (all except the United States in 1996) have improved their overall medal haul on their home turf.

The increase in medals, however, does not seem to have as much of an impact on the swimming world. Only three nations, France, China and Australia, were able to improve their swimming performance compared to the previous Games during their home Games. When comparing this data, swimming is much more challenging than the general sporting comparison because so few athletes actually win medals.

A single swimmer can decide the performance of a country, as we saw in Leon Marchand alone won five medals this year. Even if Marchand hadn’t swum, Kirpichnikova and Manaudou would still have won more swimming medals than France in 2021. China slowly got going in 2008, bouncing back after a lackluster performance in the pool in 2004. In 2008, they were joined by (current world record holders) Zhang Lin and Liu Zige, who made their Olympic medal debuts.

It was common for host nations with smaller delegations of athletes (such as Spain and South Korea) to see a massive surge in the year they hosted the event and carry their momentum into the next Olympics with slightly fewer medals. Other countries, such as Greece, saw a surge and more medals, but then suffered a steep decline in the next competition. Larger nations, such as the United States, Great Britain and Australia, remained in a similar medal range during their own Olympics as well as the Games at the end of the Games.

OLYMPIC TRIVIA

The following host nations did not have any medal winners in swimming at their home Games:

  • Brazil, (Rio de Janeiro 2016)
  • Greece, (Athens 2004)
  • South Korea, (Seoul 1988)
  • Italy, (Rome 1960)
  • Finland (Helsinki, 1952)
  • France (Paris, 1924)

The United States and the Soviet Union were the most successful swimmers at their home Games. Both superstar teams and boycotts in the early 1980s contributed to high medal counts. At the 1980 Moscow Olympics, many countries around the world boycotted the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan, so the USSR and East Germany dominated the medal count. The USSR won 22 medals in Moscow, a number boosted largely by the United States’ absence from the Games.

A very similar boycott occurred in 1984, when many former Eastern Bloc nations did not participate in the Los Angeles Olympics. With a generation of swimmers like Rowdy Gaines, Mary T. Meagher and Tracy Caulkins leading the Stars and Stripes, the United States won a total of 34 medals, the most (by far) that year. That record of 34 medals remains the most won by a host nation in that pool. The next best performance came at the 1996 Olympics in Atlanta, where the United States won 26 medals.

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