A tropical storm is likely to form and head toward Texas

A tropical wave in the western Gulf of Mexico has a higher probability of developing into a tropical storm, the National Hurricane Center said in a tropical weather forecast released Sunday morning.

The probability that the wave will form over the next seven days is 90 percent. The probability that two additional disturbances will form over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic is between 50 and 70 percent.

No named storms have formed since August 12, despite predictions of a hyperactive season. The season usually peaks around September 10, but December 1 is still 12 weeks away.

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Here’s what we know so far:

NHC: 90 percent chance of tropical storm formation in the Gulf of Mexico

Editor’s note: The story has been updated to reflect the latest weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center, which shows an increased potential for tropical storm development.N.

According to the NHC’s 2 p.m. Sunday weather forecast, a tropical storm is expected to form during the next day as the system moves mostly northwestward and then northward over the course of the week near or along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas and the Louisiana coast.

Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: 90%.
Probability of formation within 7 days: 90%.

The NHC is also tracking activity over the central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear to favor further development of this system, and a tropical depression will likely form as it moves generally westward at about 10 mph later this week, the NHC said.

Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: 60%.
Probability of formation within 7 days: 70%.

A low pressure system several hundred miles southwest of Cape Verde is producing a widespread area of scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move little over the next few days until it potentially interacts with a tropical wave that is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. After that, environmental conditions will be favorable for a gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by mid- or late-week as the system begins to move slowly west-northwestward.

Chance of occurrence within 48 hours: 0%.
Formation probability within 7 days: 50%.

More: Where are all the predicted hurricanes? Experts fear they are still coming.

Will Texas be affected? See the path of potential Tropical Storm Francine

Initial forecasts indicate that a tropical depression could form in the next few days and move north along the Gulf Coast of Mexico and Texas by mid-week.

How many named storms were there in 2024?

So far, there have been five named storms in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season:

Tropical Storm Alberto: Reached the Texas coast in June 2024 with some flooding and had less impact on the region than originally forecast.
Hurricane Beryl: Struck the Texas coast as a Category 1 hurricane near Matagorda on July 8, killing at least 38 people and setting a record for tornado spawn.
Tropical Storm Chris: Brought heavy rains and flooding to parts of Mexico in early July.
Hurricane Debby: Made landfall near Steinhatchee, Florida, on August 5, causing severe damage along the east coast and killing at least 10 people.
Hurricane Ernesto: On August 24, it struck Puerto Rico with significant flooding and then Bermuda. It was a moderate hurricane with three indirect fatalities.

If the wave develops into a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, it will be named Francine.

Spaghetti models for the possible tropical storm Francine in the Gulf of Mexico

Weather observations and warnings for Texas

According to the NHC, warnings could be in place later today or tonight in parts of the western Gulf Coast.

Stay informed. Receive weather alerts via SMS

Interactive map: Hurricanes and tropical storms that have passed near your city

— USA TODAY reporter Dinah Voyles Pulver contributed to this report.