The Milwaukee Brewers and their fans are hungry for a World Series title. Could 2024 finally be the year it happens?

Although the Brewers franchise has been around since 1969, Milwaukee is still one of only five teams in Major League Baseball to never win it all. And with the Texas Rangers winning in 2023, the Brewers are now tied with the San Diego Padres as the oldest franchise never to win the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Over the past decade, the Brewers have had many excellent teams that were considered to have a shot at the title, but so far they have not. The closest they came was in 2018, when Milwaukee lost to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series in seven games.

In 2024, however, they may have their best chance yet. And the numbers back up this assumption.

According to popular statistics database Baseball Reference, which has an algorithm for calculating playoff and championship odds, the Brewers entered Friday with a 13.4% chance of making the World Series – the highest of any MLB team. The Dodgers were second at 11.7%.

Part of the Brewers’ statistical advantage comes from their large lead in the National League Central. With a 10-game lead over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals, the Brewers are more than twice the lead over any other team in the major leagues at the top of their division.

After losing their star player Corbin Burnes to a trade in the winter and superstar outfielder Christian Yelich having to undergo season-ending back surgery, it seems unlikely that the Brewers have such a good chance of winning a title. But that’s been the Brewers’ way for a long time: Win, no matter what names are on the back of the jerseys.

And the names are still pretty good: William Contreras has a good chance of being the best catcher in baseball, Willy Adames is among the best shortstops in the game to pitch on both sides, Freddy Peralta can hang with the best aces and get strikeouts, and rookie Jackson Chourio is quickly becoming a superstar.

If all goes well, the Brewers may be able to follow Baseball Reference’s model and finally bring a trophy home to American Family Field. But at this point, cautious optimism is the only solution for a fan base that has yet to win a major championship.

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