The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide travels to Camp Randall Stadium on Saturday to face the Wisconsin Badgers in a non-conference game. The SEC-Big Ten clash is part of a Week 3 college football schedule that includes several Top 25 road games.

The Crimson Tide (2-0) enter Saturday’s game fresh off a 42-16 win over South Florida. Alabama has a 19-1 record in its last 20 September games and is currently a 16-point favorite at ESPN BET. The Badgers (2-0) defeated South Dakota 27-13 in Week 2 and have won five of their last seven September games.

The total was 51.5 at the start of the week and is now at 50.5. But in this game featuring two strong defenses, will each school’s offense get a chance to break through?

Odds current at time of publication, courtesy of ESPN BET

Spread: Alabama (-16)
Money line: Alabama (-800), Wisconsin (+550)
Over/Under: 50.5
Distribution of the first half: Alabama -8.5, Wisconsin +8.5
First half moneyline: Alabama (-450), Wisconsin (+300)

Pamela Maldonado’s tip of the match: Under 50.5

After two weeks, both Alabama and Wisconsin have displayed exceptional third-down defense, allowing only 10 of 56 attempts combined. Alabama ranks second in the nation in the number of third-down conversions allowed, a defensive strength that significantly limits opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Inefficient offenses also contribute to underperformance. Alabama may be ranked 22nd in rushing offense, but has a Pro Football Focus (PFF) run blocking score of 91. This discrepancy suggests that their rushing success is based more on individual talent than on a solid offensive line performance, which may be unsustainable against stronger defenses.

In the game against South Florida, Alabama’s yardage was subpar in the first half, managing just 57 yards on 19 attempts (3 yards per run). The offensive line’s difficulty creating running lanes could lead to more third-and-long situations against stronger defenses, potentially hindering the offense’s sustainability and point production.

Wisconsin’s offense has been inconsistent, with quarterback Tyler Van Dyke still adjusting to the new system. Van Dyke has avoided interceptions, but his pass production has been limited. He hasn’t rushed for more than 220 yards in a game and has thrown just one touchdown. His average depth of target (7.6 yards) ranks 78th out of 99 quarterbacks with at least 50 dropbacks.

The Badgers’ offense lacks explosiveness. Van Dyke has completed just two passes of 20 yards and the running backs have combined for just one run of 15 yards. This contributes to Wisconsin ranking 69th in points per game.

Given these offensive inefficiencies and the strong defensive units on both sides, the total below 50.5 points looks good.

Betting trends

• Kalen DeBoer is 1-5 in his last six games as a two-touchdown favorite (14+ points or more).

• Alabama has a record of 4-1 ATS in their last five games against Big Ten opponents.

• Wisconsin has a 4-1 record in its last five games against seeded opponents.

• Wisconsin is 5-0 ATS in its last five home games as a double-digit underdog.

• Wisconsin’s under-record in home games is 7-2 since the start of last season.

Courtesy of ESPN Stats & Info.

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