The Huskers had a golden opportunity to make a splash on the national stage. They could have shown that they are a different kind of Nebraska football team than people have been used to seeing over the last decade. They failed to deliver.
As I mentioned in my preview, this game felt like another classic Nebraska curse game. A lot of old stories came flooding back – one point loss, no points in overtime, losing to a ranked team and bad, unnecessary penalties. Illinois looked better coached and more disciplined than the Huskers. Before the game, Nebraska seemed ahead of Matt Rhule’s rebuilding plan. While 3-1 is disappointing, it’s the same position he was in as a sophomore with Temple and Baylor. Friday night showed that the foundation he’s building is solid, but there’s still a long way to go before he’s a great team.
Painful win probability charts have become a symbol of Nebraska football over the past six years. After a great five-minute drive following Ceyair Wright’s forced fumble, Nebraska’s win probability on paper peaked at 85.8% per game. A throw that was just too long for Luke Lindenmeyer and a missed field goal would reduce Nebraska’s chances of winning by 37.1%.
This was a well-executed drive that I believe was the result of questionable coaching decisions. Jahmal Banks, Isaiah Neyor, and Thomas Fidone II were all off the field on this third down. Dylan Raiola has great timing on all three pass receivers. The play was great and executed quite well. Nebraska replaced its reliable targets with a group that had three catches all season. This play makes the coaches look brilliant when it works. Nothing is smarter than letting Dylan Raiola make the throws to the guys he trusts.
Illinois and Nebraska came into this game as two evenly matched teams and were pretty evenly matched on paper. Two stats stand out to me and I believe decided the game. Illinois managed five more explosive plays (pass EPA > 2.4, run EPA > 1.8) than Nebraska. Without Illinois’ seven explosive plays, Illinois would have been one of the five worst offenses in college football at -0.23 EPA/play. In my UTEP review, I was concerned about how well the Huskers could defend against big plays. Illinois was a more complete team that took advantage of that to win.
The other big stat was the disparity in average starting positions. Illinois started its drives an average of 12 yards ahead of the Huskers. Illinois would only need about 25 yards per drive to get into field goal range, on average. However, Illinois doubled the distance needed and its average drive ended in a goal-to-go situation. They also managed to get 88% of the available yards all night. If the Huskers’ defense isn’t as strong as it was in 2023, the special teams will have to force their opponents to take longer fields.
In some ways, this game justified the panic people had during the first three games. Many of the worst aspects of those games came together against Illinois, resulting in a loss. However, there are some improvements that can be made midseason to keep the goal of a bowl game in sight.
The special teams problems are solvable or avoidable. Nebraska can improve its kick coverage units to force more fair catches from opponents. Nebraska can eliminate the risk of missed field goals by treating everything between the opponent’s 25 and 40 yard lines as fourth-down territory. It needs to play more disciplined football and avoid stupid penalties.
The Huskers are on schedule with their rebuild under Matt Rhule and have plenty of opportunity to provide a glimpse of what a third-year Rhule team might look like.
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