The Atlanta Braves are 8-2 over their last 10 games and are looking for a sweep of the Minnesota Twins tonight, putting them six games behind the Phillies in the division but three games ahead of the Mets for the final wild-card spot.

Chris Sale is the current favorite for the Cy Young Award for the Braves. He currently has the best ERA among qualified starters in the NL, most wins, best adjusted ERA, best FIP ​​and most strikeouts per nine innings pitched.

Since the beginning of July, he’s been even better at preventing runs than his season-long ERA indicates. Since the beginning of July, he has a .233 ERA, a 1.65 FIP, and hitters hitting .239/.297/.323, all despite arguably having bad luck with hitters who have had a .367 BABIP against him.

Sale has been in the MLB since 2010, so it’s no surprise that he’s faced many of the Twins’ hitters. However, aside from Carlos Santana, he hasn’t faced any player on the roster for more than seven at-bats.

Carlos Santana is an interesting opponent. He has 45 at-bats against Sale. He has a career average of .311, .811 OPS and two home runs against him. Santana also has three hits in this series against the Braves.

The other player to watch is Manuel Margot, who has a .429 average and an .858 OPS in seven at-bats against Sale. The two hitters who have faced Sale most often have had quite good success against him.

David Festa will be on the mound for the Twins. He has only pitched 36.1 innings at the MLB level. Only former Tiger Gio Urshela has faced him before. Urshela had a single in two at-bats against Festa.

Festa has struggled to a 5.20 ERA in his small sample size, but his expected ERA (xERA) is much lower at 4.20 and he strikes out hitters very often, with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Seven of his twenty-one earned runs came in the same game Urshela faced him in in early July. Since that start, Festa has gotten much better, with a 3.08 ERA over 25.1 innings in five starts and one relief appearance. Hitters have hit .212/.291/.384, with hitters having a .300 BABIP against him over that span, which was close to league average.

In other words, don’t let the high ERA fool you. Festa has pitched well since establishing himself as a member of the Twins’ rotation.

The Braves have scored a lot more runs in this series. In the season before this series, the Braves averaged 4.25 runs per game, and in just two games against the Twins they scored 18. With Sale on the mound, there’s a good chance the Braves will hit their season average and have a chance to win.

The Braves have a chance to win six of seven games tonight as their favorite for the Cy Young Award faces an offense that has scored the fifth-most runs in the AL.

First pitch is at 7:40 ET.

Game info

Date/time of the game: Thursday, August 28, 7:40 p.m. ET

Location: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN.

TV: Bally Sports South

Streaming: MLB.tv

Radio: 680 AM / 93,7 FM The Fan