Player traits can be useful in a variety of ways, from direct use to measuring a player’s performance potential in Daily Fantasy Baseball on FanDuel.
Here we focus on the former, especially home run props.
Using our home run predictions (provided by numberFire) as a guide, here are some MLB home run prop bets that look attractive based on the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note that betting odds and our MLB predictions may change throughout the day after this article is published. Weather may also be an issue in some locations.
Today’s best home run props
Alex Bregman hits a home run (+420)
You can’t run for long, James Paxton.
The newly signed Boston Red Sox left-hander has allowed just two home runs in 15.1 innings with the new club, but Paxton’s splits look like a well-mixed cocktail for home runs. This season, he has posted an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.71 with increased fly ball (43.1%) and hard hit (43.2%) rates.
And yet he has dodged a home run-to-fly ball (HR:FB) ratio of 9.2%, well below the league average (12.9%), despite playing home games in two of baseball’s most bomb-friendly stadiums. It’s magic.
Alex Bregman might be able to put an end to the madness. The Houston Astros third baseman has been pounding left-handed pitchers with a .731 OPS, a .259 ISO, a 44.4% fly ball rate and a 44.4% hard hit rate over the last 30 days.
Our daily MLB projections have Bregman at 0.23 expected home runs in tonight’s game. If true, that would be roughly +387 odds to hit a home run, but I see value in the fact that he’s listed as the fourth-longest Houston hitter to hit a home run, even though the team has had the best power numbers against lefties of late.
Aaron Judge hits a home run (+210)
It’s been a rough week for All Rise Nation, but Aaron Judge has an opponent today that will send you to the stands.
Judge hasn’t hit a home run since August 3, which is a normal dry spell for most, but an eerie one for the sensational New York Yankees outfielder. That might be partly because he’s faced left-handed hitters just 30 times in the last 30 days, but today he’ll face one, and that’s excellent news. This season, he’s hit left-handed hitters in 126 PAs, posting a 1.128 OPS, .364 ISO, 50.0% fly ball rate, and 46.2% hard hit rate.
Today’s candidate is left-hander Andrew Heaney. Heaney’s rate of 1.17 home runs allowed per nine (HR/9) this year is actually his lowest since 2015, but I wouldn’t call that a turning point. Heaney’s fly ball (46.5%) and hard hit (40.3%) rates are still well above league average; he just got lucky to get a 9.4% HR:FB ratio.
Our projections have Judge hitting 0.46 home runs on Sunday, more than any other player in action. I had to look twice to see if he hadn’t hit a bomber in so long, but a left-hander willing to give them up in droves should get him going again.
Brent Rooker hits a home run (+420)
I don’t cover any player more in this article than Brent Rooker. That’s because he consistently has the same contact splits and home run projections as Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani, but costs as much on a daily basis as Alex Bregman.
Rooker hit his 29th home run of the season yesterday, and I was expecting a bomb or two on this trip north of the border. The series will end on Sunday with right-hander Chris Bassitt. Against right-handers, Rooker has posted an impressive 1.103 OPS, .429 ISO, 43.6% fly ball rate, and 47.6% hard hit rate (!) in 75 PAs over the last 30 days. I won’t play him again if he stops pounding.
Although Bassitt has been a difficult sinkerballer to target with dongs in the past, he has allowed only modest flyball (35.6%) and hard hit (38.6%) rates this season. I simply view his 0.90 HR/9 as a lie considering the HR:FB ratio is 9.6%. Additionally, Bassitt is being replaced by a bullpen with the second-worst xFIP of the last month (5.00).
Only Judge is predicted to hit more home runs than Rooker (0.41) in today’s games. If that’s true, the implied odds are around +197, and I have to grab the Oakland Athletics outfielder again as a value play.
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The author named above is an employee of FanDuel and is not authorized to participate in public daily fantasy contests or place sports bets on FanDuel. Advice provided by the author does not necessarily reflect the views of FanDuel. Following the author’s advice does not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports bets.
