Prop Bet #1: Tina Charles over 15.5 points
-125 at BetRivers
Veteran Atlanta Dream player Tina Charles has been a monster since the league resumed play.
The 6-foot-4 forward has averaged 19 points in seven games since the Olympic break, including 23 points in last weekend’s win over LA. Charles is playing a larger role in Atlanta’s offense, attempting an average of 2.5 more field goals per game in the second half of the schedule.
The Dream are battling for the final postseason spot and will face the Phoenix Mercury tonight. Charles’ scoring prop has an over/under of 15.5 points, a mark she has surpassed in five of her last seven appearances.
The Mercury are in the bottom third of the league in defensive rating and are vulnerable to second chance points, as Phoenix allows a WNBA-worst 9.9 offensive rebounds per game. Charles is a threat from the inside out, but thrives on those offensive putbacks and second chances.
The player projections for Charles are all above her point total, with my number being 17.5 points against the Mercury, more than enough to surpass her point total tonight.
Prop Bet #2: Satou Sabally over 6.5 rebounds
-115 at Caesars
Maybe it’s too little too late for Satou Sabally to return to the Dallas Wings, but don’t tell that to the reigning Most Improved Player.
After missing the first half of the season, Sabally averaged 20.6 points and more than six rebounds per game to give a struggling Dallas team a new lease of life. The versatile 6’4″ forward does everything for the Wings, including hitting the hardest shots.
While Sabally only had four rebounds in Sunday’s loss to Indiana, she has had seven or more rebounds in four of her first seven games since returning. Dallas faces a shorthanded Washington Mystics frontcourt that is missing starting center and top rebounder Shakira Austin.
Since the league resumed, the Wings and Mystics have been playing at the two fastest tempos in the WNBA, which means plenty of possessions and extra field goal attempts, which in turn means more rebounding opportunities.
The WNBA prop predictions for Sabally are for more than seven rebounds, and my prediction is for 7.2 rebounds on Tuesday. And that’s without taking into account Austin’s absence under the basket.
Prop Bet #3: Chelsea Gray under 16.5 points + assists + rebounds
-128 at FanDuel
The Las Vegas Aces are counting down the days until the start of the playoffs while trying to keep their stars healthy for their run at their third consecutive WNBA title.
The reigning champions had a scare last time out when standout point guard Chelsea Gray missed the second half of Sunday’s game against Phoenix due to a back injury. Although Gray is not on the injured list for tonight’s game against the Chicago Sky, bettors should be cautious about Gray returning if her back continues to cause problems.
The Aces are favorites at home tonight by 12 points, but have two important road games later in the week against Connecticut and New York. If Las Vegas lives up to that big point lead and pulls away tonight, coach Becky Hammon could give Gray a rest in the second half.
The sportsbooks have her at 16.5 O/U for points, assists, and rebounds, and while some projections have Gray as high as 18 combine stats, I’m not convinced she’ll get enough playing time to reach that mark.
Some models put the Aces at 16 points + assists + rebounds in 27 minutes of play – and even that could be too much if the Aces play like they did this weekend and give Hammon the opportunity to bench the stars.
