With two solid pitchers tonight in Kevin Gausman and Max Fried, our MLB expert Andrew Caley believes the early game will be a low-run affair. See below for more information.
After losing a series against the Philadelphia Phillies, the headlines are now changing for the Toronto Blue Jays in the National League East as they travel to open a series against the Atlanta Braves.
Even though the Blue Jays are the underdogs in this matchup, my predictions for the Blue Jays vs. Braves game focus on their ability to keep the game close as we are looking at a battle of pitchers.
Join me as I analyze my MLB favorites for September 6th.
Prediction for Blue Jays vs. Braves
My best bet
Under 4.5 in the first five innings (-139 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
The Toronto Blue Jays fought hard against National League East leaders Philadelphia Phillies this week, but it wasn’t enough as they lost both games of the mini two-game series.
While the bullpen is still a mess and wins may not be coming, this Blue Jays team has undoubtedly become more enjoyable to watch since the trade deadline. Another player who is playing better is tonight’s starter, Kevin Gausman.
It’s been a rollercoaster season for Gausman. After two very strong years in Toronto, he’s definitely slowed down a bit. But the right-hander has been looking more like that guy again recently.
Gausman’s pitching has a 2.20 ERA and limited his batting average to .179 over his last five starts. While a matchup against the Atlanta Braves isn’t easy, the Braves aren’t quite the dominant force they were last season.
Injuries have played a role, but they have also lessened somewhat. Right-handed hitters have been a particular problem. Atlanta enters this game with the 20th batting average, 18th OPS and 20th wRC+ against right-handed hitters this season.
Luckily for the Braves, they handed the ball to Max Fried for this interleague matchup. Fried has also had some ups and downs this season and sports a solid, if unspectacular, 3.79 ERA. He has been solid recently, posting a 3.33 ERA and a .212 opponent batting average in his last three starts.
But he’s also the type of pitcher who can cause problems for this young Blue Jays lineup. Fried uses a great mix of pitches to keep hitters off balance and is one of the better pitchers in the league at making soft contact. Plus, he’s a left-handed hitter.
Toronto ranks 26th in batting average, 25th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers this season.
I’m betting this game will be all about pitching early on, and I’m predicting the under after five innings.
Prop for Blue Jays star player
My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+175 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has picked up right where he left off in August in September. The Blue Jays’ star first baseman has already struck out five times in just two games this month.
Vladdy comes into this matchup with a .328 batting average, .963 OPS, 28 home runs, and 92 RBI, and while the Jays as a team have had their problems against left-handed hitters, the same cannot be said for their hitter.
Guerrero has a .337 batting average with a 1.079 OPS when facing left-handed pitchers this season. He has also scored at least one run in six of his 10 games and I’m confident he can do that again tonight.
The price of Guerrero getting over 0.5 RBI is too high to pass up, and according to our Covers Prop Projections, it’s actually a five-star game at these odds.
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Odds for Blue Jays vs. Braves
Blue Jays vs Braves live odds
Opening odds Blue Jays vs. Braves
- Money line: Toronto +150 | Atlanta -180
- Execute line: Toronto +1.5 -140 | Atlanta -1.5 +120
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Blue Jays vs. Braves Moneyline and Over/Under Analysis
- The Blue Jays began this interleague duel as underdogs at +150, but early bettors saw some value in them when the odds rose to the +140 range.
- That’s probably because this pitcher comparison is closer than the line suggests.
- The overall value was 7.5 and has now even reached 8.0, but since Friday afternoon the values of 7.5 have risen again.
- I like the under through the first five innings in this matchup, but since the Blue Jays bullpen has the third-worst ERA in baseball, I’m avoiding the under the entire game.
Trend Blue Jays vs. Braves
The Blue Jays have hit the game total under in 5 of their last 6 road games, which works out to +3.90 units and a 60% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. Braves here.
Game info Blue Jays vs. Braves
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Friday, 6.9.2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, Bally Sports Southeast |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (12-10, 4.07 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Max Fried (8-8, 3.52 ERA) |
Blue Jays vs Braves: Latest injuries
Weather Blue Jays vs. Braves
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