The final round of the BMW Championship should be a treat for golf fans. Keegan Bradley (12 under par after three rounds) is one stroke ahead of Adam Scott (-11) in the penultimate event of the 2023-24 PGA Tour season.
Swedish duo Ludvig Aberg (-10) and Alex Noren (-10) still have a chance of winning at Castle Pines, while major champions Xander Schauffele (-7) and Wyndham Clark (-7) will need some luck on Sunday.
Here are three of my favorite BMW Championship picks for Sunday’s final round at Castle Rock.
Ludvig Aberg – Tournament winner +330 (DraftKings)
Despite a par-72 on Thursday and a one-under-par score on Saturday, Aberg is just two shots behind Bradley in the lead. The 24-year-old shot a 63 on Friday and has the potential to post a similar result this afternoon.
Aberg is fifth in the field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee (2.69) and sixth in SG: Around-the-Green (1.549). While Bradley was better on approach shots, Aberg is over two strokes better on the green. Aberg’s putting advantage should play a significant role in his comeback attempt.
The Swede’s odds of +330 put him in third place behind Bradley (+240) and Scott (+300). When you factor in Scott’s tee-off issues and Bradley’s uneven finishing, Aberg is a good reason for me to buy.
Rory McIlroy – Top 10 ranking +105 (FanDuel)
It’s been a frustrating season for McIlroy in many ways, marked by a collapse in the final round of the US Open and an early exit from the Open Championship last month. However, Rory has a chance of finishing in the top 10 at Castle Pines and I can’t ignore that.
McIlroy is still hitting bombarding shots off the tee and ranks third in SG: Off-the-Tee (2.73) this week. He’s clearly in the middle of the pack in other key stats, although many players ahead of him are losing a stroke or more on approach shots, around the green and with the putter on Sunday.
Golf fans also saw plenty of attacks from the 2022 FedEx Cup champion on Sunday. While he’s unlikely to pull off the win, McIlroy should do enough to come away with a T10 finish ahead of next week’s Tour Championship.
Nick Dunlap – 2-ball winner against Sepp Straka –120 (DraftKings)
The final bet is a head-to-head matchup between Dunlap and his playing partner Straka. Both enter Sunday’s fourth round at 5 under par, but Dunlap’s underlying statistics show a higher probability of finishing in a better position.
Dunlap and Straka are almost identical when teeing off. However, the former is eighth in SG: Approach-to-Green (2.695) and SG: Around-the-Green (1.652). For comparison: Straka is 41st (-1.894) and 29th (-0.330) in these statistics, respectively.
Straka’s position on the leaderboard is down to his putting, which ranks second behind Alex Noren in strokes gained (4.48) through three rounds. But elite putting is much harder to replicate round after round than ball striking, so we’ll give the edge to Dunlap.
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