Fernando Tatis Jr. has established himself as one of the Padres’ most powerful batters, hitting 14 home runs in 80 games this season. Had the two-time MLB All-Star not been sidelined since June 21 with a stress reaction to his right thigh, he likely could have finished the season as the team’s leading home run hitter.

Despite not having pitched in over a month and being nearly 40 games behind Padres leaders Manny Machado and Jurickson Profar, Tatis Jr. is still only five home runs behind the leading duo. Before suffering the likely season-ending injury, Tatis Jr. was the Padres’ best hitter with 14 home runs.

Deesha Thosar of FOX Sports evaluated 18 active power hitters in the major leagues and predicted whether or not they would reach the 500-home run mark in their careers, a feat only 28 MLB players have ever accomplished. The most recent addition was Miguel Cabrera of the Tigers in 2021. The newest member of the 500 club retired last season with a career total of 511 home runs.

Among the 18 power hitters, two Padres were highlighted, including Tatis Jr. and Machado, the Padres’ current co-leader in home runs. Both San Diego hitters were given “50/50” chances of eventually entering the .500 club. While the 32-year-old Macado has collected 332 home runs in his career, the 25-year-old Tatis Jr. has hit 120.

Tatis averages 24 home runs per season, but that includes three seasons (2019, 2020, 2024) in which the right fielder played fewer than 100 games. He did not play in any games in 2022, but that season was not included in calculating his average home runs per season.

In the 2021 season alone, Tatis hit a third of his career home runs (42). Based on the 2021 and 2023 seasons alone, he averaged 33.5 home runs. For Tatis, injuries are the biggest obstacle to the prestigious .500 club. Every season he was limited to 100 games, except for 2020, when he was sent to Estrella Orientales, was due to injury. He was also suspended for using a performance-enhancing drug, which reduced his career home run total.

In 2021, Tatis Jr. signed a 14-year deal with the Padres. Now that his contract has a decade left, the young star still has a while to hit 500 home runs in his career.

However, if he decides to end his career immediately after his contract expires, he would have to hit an average of 38 home runs per season to reach the .500 mark, which is very unlikely. In five seasons, he has hit at least 38 home runs only once.