This is what we now know about the 2024 election polls
In the 2016 presidential election, pollsters predicted a Hillary Clinton victory. Here’s what we now know about the 2024 election polls.
Less than two months before the 2024 presidential election, the race to succeed the next President of the United States is already underway: Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Ahead of Tuesday night’s second presidential debate and the first between these two candidates, Trump, the 45th President of the United States, had a slight lead as he was considered the favorite at odds of -125. This means he currently has a 55.5 percent chance of being elected this November, according to bet365 on Covers.com.
Harris came in at +100, also known as “even money,” which is right in the middle and corresponds to an implied 50/50 probability of becoming the first woman in United States history to officially become president.
So what are the odds after tonight’s debate? Here are the numbers you need to know, how this race has changed this summer, and more on the 2024 presidential election:
*Disclaimer: Federal law prohibits political betting in the United States, including the 2024 presidential election.
Odds for the 2024 presidential election: Harris and Trump tied after the first debate
After their first debate against each other, it is Harris who has gained ground at bet365 via Covers.com, as the candidates are now tied at -110 after Tuesday night’s debate.
This gives both Harris and Trump an implied probability of 52.3 percent of winning the presidency. This means that with less than 60 days until a new President of the United States is elected, a neck-and-neck race is actually possible.
A second debate between the two candidates is not yet set in stone after the first meeting at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia on September 10.
The next major debate will take place on October 1 between the vice presidential candidates, Democratic Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota and Ohio Senator JD Vance, and will be broadcast on CBS News in New York City.
If Walz or Vance outperform their opponents next month, it could give their respective parties a small advantage nearly a month before Election Day.
Odds for the 2024 presidential election: Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
After US President Joe Biden withdrew his candidacy for a second term on July 21, Trump was the clear favourite to be elected President of the United States for a second time at bet365 at odds of -200 (bet $200 to win $100), while Harris was at 2/1 in the betting market (bet $100 to win $200).
As can be seen above, these numbers have changed dramatically since then.
It was a neck-and-neck race between the two candidates. Harris was the favorite in mid-August before Trump regained the lead ahead of Tuesday’s debate.
With plenty of time left for voters to cast their ballots for the Oval Office seat, it should come as no surprise if this see-saw battle between Trump and Harris continues over the next eight weeks, with them overtaking each other.
Accuracy of presidential election odds throughout history
According to the Conversation, the clear favorite has only lost twice in the presidential election since 1866.
One of those surprises was Trump himself, when he overcame odds of 7/2 (an implied probability of winning of 22.22) to defeat Hillary Clinton, the Democratic candidate in the 2016 presidential election.
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