The Atlanta Braves defeated the San Francisco Giants 1-0 in 10 innings on Monday night after a sac fly by Travis d’Arnaud gave them the lead. It was primarily a pitcher’s duel, pitting two of the game’s best pitchers, Chris Sale and Blake Snell, against each other.
The former had a season-high 12 strikeouts in 7.0 innings, allowed three hits and allowed zero runs. Snell went hitless until the seventh inning, just a week after going hitless against the Cincinnati Reds. He went 6.1 innings, allowed a couple of hits and had 11 strikeouts.
Snell is too far out of the Cy Young race after injuries marred his early-season performance. Sale, however, is the betting favorite for a prize the eight-time All-Star is long overdue for. He has been dominant all season, tweaking his pitching repertoire and anchoring a Braves rotation that lost preseason Cy Young favorite Spencer Strider in the middle of his second start.
Here are the current favorites for the NL Cy Young Award. Sale has made as strong a case as you could find, but he faces stiff competition — the toughest of which may come from within his own division.
Honorable Mentions: Ranger Suarez, Reynaldo Lopez, Logan Webb
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Dylan Cease has been in top form since the All-Star break, and the San Diego Padres seem to be riding that momentum every week. Essentially used as a replacement for Blake Snell during the offseason, Cease needed a few weeks to find his feet in San Diego. But down the stretch, he’s left hitters confused and overwhelmed in equal measure.
Cease currently leads the MLB with 181 strikeouts in 25 starts and 142.2 innings pitched. His 3.41 ERA and 1.01 WHIP are more than respectable and speak to Cease’s ability to keep innings short and points low. He ranks in the 93rd percentile in both strikeout rate and whiff rate, according to Baseball Savant. There is no more intimidating starter in the league right now.
There will be a lot of talk about what could have been with Cease this season. If he had been stronger from the start, he would probably be closer to No. 1 on this list now. Strikeouts have been consistent all season, but Cease’s composure and consistency have been especially impressive lately. A few weeks ago, he pitched a no-hitter with the Washington Nationals, securing nine strikeouts in the process. That’s the kind of moment Cy Young candidates are built around.
Cease finished second in the Cy Young voting in 2022. He probably won’t come as close in 2024, but the Padres can rest assured that Cease’s struggles last season (and early this season) were an exception rather than a troubling trend.
Pound for pound, there has probably not been a more dominant starting pitcher in MLB this season. Paul Skenes came onto the Pittsburgh Pirates roster exactly as advertised, with triple-digit heat and a 90-second sinker that can knock an unsuspecting batter’s chair out from under him.
The only real criticism of Skenes is his limited presence. He didn’t arrive at the MLB level until mid-May, and the Pirates have protected his arm extremely. His innings have been intentionally limited, so he simply hasn’t been on the mound as much (15 starts, 92.0 innings to date) as others in this race. When judging the totality of a season, it’s hard not to fault the 22-year-old for that.
Pittsburgh fans can rest assured, however, that Skenes will be competing for multiple Cy Young Awards over the next decade. Assuming he stays healthy, there simply isn’t a more dominant player in the National League. Skenes has slowed down a bit in his last few starts — 0-2 with a 3.16 ERA in his last four appearances — but if this is the low point for Skenes, the bump along the way, then we’re about to see big things.
He currently has a record of 6-2 and a 2.25 ERA after 15 starts, including 115 punch-outs. The guy is special.
It would be easy to overlook Hunter Greene due to the Reds’ mediocrity, but even at three games under .500, Cincinnati is only 4.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot. There’s a world where Greene will be introduced on the postseason stage in a few months, and all of Cincinnati’s deficiencies to date are beyond the ability of any one pitcher to fix.
The Reds have been quite effective in Greene’s appearances. He’s 8-4 in 23 starts with a 2.90 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The hard-throwing right-hander has electrifying stuff, getting plenty of soft contact while overwhelming his opponents. Greene has 154 strikeouts in 136.1 innings with a K-rate, whiff rate and hard hit rate all in the 80th percentile or above.
Greene fits the mold of a modern fireball pitcher, switching primarily between a deadly fastball and an equally slippery slider. He has all the numbers and accolades to warrant a Cy Young candidacy, including what promises to be the first of many All-Star appearances. The only thing missing from Greene’s candidacy — and this is also a knock against Skene’s — is team success. He’s not exactly responsible for Cincinnati’s larger problems, but Greene just doesn’t have the same spotlight or major moments as the frontrunners on this list.
At 25, this likely won’t be the last time Greene appears in the conversation for the Cy Young title. He will be a solidifier in the Reds’ rotation for a long time to come.
At 34, Zack Wheeler is having arguably his best season yet. The reason is simple: He’s the best pitcher in the best rotation in MLB, dominating all the key metrics for a Philadelphia Phillies team that should win its division and perhaps claim first place in the National League.
Wheeler has 23 starts and has a 2.75 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP, including 156 strikeouts in 142.2 innings. He doesn’t have top-notch speed, but Wheeler makes up for it with an insane run on his fastball. The rest of his arsenal fits perfectly together and keeps batters guessing.
Wheeler has probably the best top-flight pitcher in the National League, and it’s hard not to notice his record – 11-5 – and the success of the team around him. Pitching is more divorced from collective team success than other positions or other sports, but it still counts for something when you dominate as part of a dominant unit.
Wheeler also stands out in the broader context of Philadelphia’s rotation. Both Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez were All-Stars, and Aaron Nola is usually extremely reliable. And yet it’s Wheeler who stands out from the pack. He’s established himself as the clear No. 1 prospect in Philly, and there’s a non-negligible chance he’ll earn a spot in the Cy Young poll by the end of the season.
Finally, we come to the frontrunner. Chris Sale exceeded even the most optimistic expectations at the start of the season. It’s clear that the Braves always believed in Sale. The 35-year-old, who came from the Boston Red Sox in the winter, signed a contract extension immediately upon arriving in Atlanta. But there were legitimate reservations among the fan base. Sale hadn’t pitched more than 103 innings in a season since 2019. He was a 35-year-old with ongoing injury problems. How many times have we seen similar investments fail?
Yet Sale has been healthy and in top form all season. His 2.61 ERA is the best among qualified starters in the National League, and he also leads the league in wins (13). In 22 starts, Sale has accumulated 134.2 innings and 177 strikeouts, just behind Dylan Cease for the MLB high.
It’s a joy to see Sale at his best at this stage of his career. Again, there is no more deserving — or overdue — Cy Young candidate in the sport. Sale has been tormenting hitters for over a decade. He’s one of the most memorable pitchers of his generation. It’s only fitting that he gets this moment in Atlanta, a team that should be capable of making a splash in the postseason if the cards line up right.
It’s also important to note the context of Sale’s dominance. Atlanta lost Spencer Strider early in the season, which left the Braves’ rotation shaky from the start. Had Sale not had such a dominant season, the Braves likely wouldn’t be in the Wild Card mix. He was a stabilizing force despite one injury after another, holding the top of Atlanta’s rotation after one of the game’s best young pitchers went down.
It’s been an incredible season for Sale and if he finishes well and takes home the award, he’ll have earned it.
