It was another dry day with temperatures around 27 degrees as the weather pattern continues to support summer warmth. However, changes are on the horizon as a cold front moves east over the Dakotas tonight into Thursday. We’re seeing some mid- and upper-level clouds moving across the sky ahead of this system, giving us partly cloudy conditions tonight. It will remain warm with light southerly winds and lows of just 15 to 18 degrees. While an isolated shower or storm may move into western counties by morning, most places will remain dry. As the front approaches on Thursday, isolated showers and storms will be in the area throughout the morning. Clouds could then try to mix with partial sunshine in the afternoon. Depending on how this all plays out, the buildup to a severe weather threat will be in place through Thursday night. Atmospheric winds will lead to increasing shear as dew points climb to 15 degrees. Instability will increase and conditions will be conducive to intensifying storms as they cross the state line and move east. The main risks include isolated very large hail, strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes. These threats will occur between 4 and 10 p.m. and a First Level Alert is currently in place.

Once the front passes through, the weather will calm down, with patches of fog forming by Friday morning. As a weak high takes over, the work week will end on a dry note, with a gradual return to sunshine and highs around 27 degrees. The weekend brings the official end of summer and the start of fall, and the weather will follow this change of season. Saturday will be another warm day, with highs around 27 degrees, while the next front is expected to approach from the west. Showers or thunderstorms are possible later in the day, but for now it looks mostly dry. Once the front passes through, a wave of low pressure may form further south. Uncertainty about how quickly this system will move toward the state is growing quickly, but the chance for some rain will increase Sunday and possibly linger into Monday. The result will be cooler temperatures to begin fall, with highs around 18 degrees. Seasonal highs are then expected to hold through the middle of next week.

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