Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Bettors, the time has come. We can finally place bets on college football again. Feels good, doesn’t it?
While many fans wait until Week 1 to get involved, I decided to start the party early with some Week 0 bets. Remember, there’s always a market worth diving into if you do your research.
But that’s why I’m here. I’ve done the research for you. And as a former college football lineman who also played in the NFL, I can give you a pretty good perspective from both a football perspective and a bettor’s perspective.
Let’s dive deeper.
All times ET
Saturday, August 24
State of Florida Comparisons Georgia Tech Institute (12:00 p.m., ESPN)
There will be a lot of betting on the first game of the college football season, with the public backing Georgia Tech and the Under.
Florida State enters 2024 with new players across the field. The Seminoles have a new quarterback, running back, top receiver and two offensive linemen. They must replace two defensive linemen selected early in the 2024 NFL Draft, as well as five other starters. There is also the assumption that the Seminoles will have a hangover from their 13-0 2023 season, which will lead to a sluggish start.
Georgia Tech had a strange first full season under Brent Key in 2023. The Yellow Jackets won several games they shouldn’t have won, but then got steamrolled by a MAC team. They’re hoping for more consistency in 2024, and after another roster overhaul, Tech feels primed for a better year.
From 2022-2023, Georgia Tech’s offense has improved significantly, and in 2024 that unit returns with several key players. The defense needs to get better after hiring a coordinator in the offseason and adding new players to that side of the ball. However, I don’t think Georgia Tech is ready to cover a game like this, and it’s too public a site, so I’ll stay away.
Instead, I’ll take a player bet for the first game of the season.
Florida State’s offense will always be run-oriented under head coach Mike Norvell. The Seminoles have three offensive linemen back, and their offensive line coach is the offensive coordinator. They may have lost Trey Benson, but they still have plenty of talent in the running back room. There’s a lot of uncertainty in the receiving room after losing talent to the NFL. There are no proven weapons, and someone — or several — will have to step up in the passing game for transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei.
DJU is on his third team in three years. He played three seasons at Clemson, then one at Oregon State before landing at FSU. He is very talented, but not accurate and throws for far fewer yards than the public thinks.
He averaged just 219 yards per game at Oregon State, and I expect it to be similar with his new team, as the Seminoles are putting an emphasis on the running game and offensive line. And since this is Game 1 and they don’t have any proven weapons on the perimeter, I see this being an even more run-heavy game for Norvell.
Taking all these aspects into account, I predict that DJU will have under 231.5 passing yards in the first game of the season.
CHOICE: DJ Uiagalelei under 231.5 passing yards
CFB Week 0 Player Props: Evan Stewart and Dillon Gabriel from Oregon
SMU @ Nevada (8 p.m., CBSSN)
SMU had one of the best offensive lines in the country last season, averaging 38.7 points per game. The Mustangs return eight starters on offense, including all of their skill position players. That leaves them with three new offensive linemen, but they have an excellent offensive coach who has developed talent over the years.
Under head coach Rhett Lashlee, SMU should be able to hit the ground running with its power spread offense.
Nevada was awful last season, winning just two games. The Wolfpack has a new staff, but that group is expected to struggle again this season. Bill Connelly’s SP+ projects Nevada to finish 120th this season, while SMU’s offense is expected to finish 22nd.
Last year – against defenses like Nevada’s – SMU scored 55 points against Temple, 69 against Tulsa and 59 against Navy. I’m betting the Mustangs can get off to a fast start against the Wolfpack this season.
CHOICE: SMU team scored over 41.5 points overall
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He played three seasons as a right tackle for the University of Oregon and was named to the All-Pac-12 second team his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @Geoff Schwartz.
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