TThe bargain bins of the upscale grocery store in the Achrafieh district of east Beirut are filled with offers that are unusual for its upscale clientele. On offer: 40 rolls of toilet paper, 6-litre jugs of water, 10kg bags of washing powder, 5kg of sugar.
Customers ignore the French cheese and head straight for the canned goods. Their shopping carts are stuffed with diapers, cartons of UHT milk and dried beans.
“We buy the food that lasts the longest. We have no idea what the next few days will bring,” said Charbel Kiwan, a fruit and vegetable supplier, as he shops with his wife and their two children.
The family had planned to go shopping that morning, but rushed to the store after Israeli jets broke the sound barrier three times in a row on Tuesday afternoon, shattering windows across the Lebanese capital.
As warplanes roared over the city, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah delivered a speech vowing revenge on Israel. Both the Lebanese militant group and Iran have said a “strong” retaliation against Israel is imminent, blaming Israel for the killing of Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s top military commander, in Beirut last month and the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader, in Tehran.
How and when that retaliation will come remains unclear after U.S. officials twice revised their predictions of an Iranian response. As diplomats scrambled to defuse the conflict, Nasrallah said Tuesday: “Israel’s week-long wait is part of punishment and retaliation.”
This anticipation also weighs on the Lebanese population, who, despite ten months of confrontation following Hezbollah’s opening of the northern front against Israel, feel that a full-scale conflict is possible this time.
“We don’t think there will be a war, but this is the first time it seems so dangerous,” said Kiwan, with his cart full of canned vegetables and sacks of rice.
“Deep down we feel… Well, it was hard,” his wife added, letting out a long sigh.
Mental health experts have said the looming threat of war has contributed to a “persistent fear” in Lebanon that is having long-term effects on people and their ability to plan for the future.
“We frequently receive calls from people who are worried about a possible all-out war in Lebanon,” said Mia Atwi, a clinical psychologist and chair of Lebanon’s mental health hotline Embrace. Atwi added that in times of crisis, people often neglect their long-term mental health and instead focus on securing their basic needs, such as shelter, food and safety.
Lebanese officials have said there is no reason to panic or hoard goods. Drawing on the experience of the 2006 war with Israel, importers of fuel and medicine have drawn up contingency plans in the event of another conflict.
“As far as food supplies are concerned, there is absolutely no problem. We have supplies for two to three months, which is a reasonable guideline,” said Hani Bohsali, head of the Lebanese Association of Food Importers.
The head of the petrol station operators’ association also confirmed to the Guardian that the country had enough fuel to last at least a month.
Even though food and fuel depots are at full capacity, distribution could be a challenge if war breaks out. In 2006, Israel bombed highways, bridges and other civilian infrastructure, making it impossible to transport supplies from depots to market.
“In 2006, Israelis raided trucks because they were possibly carrying weapons. I had a warehouse with thousands of tons of food, but I couldn’t distribute it,” Bohsali said. “There is absolutely no shortage at the moment, but whether we can distribute it or not is impossible to predict.”
Official appeals for calm have little effect as distrust of the government, widely seen as corrupt and incompetent, is widespread. Messages are being forwarded in WhatsApp groups urging people to fill up their cars, prompted by an alarming news item or the flood of rumors circulating on social media.
Not everyone in Lebanon can afford to prepare for disaster. The country is still mired in a five-year economic crisis during which the national currency has lost 95 percent of its value.
“Prepare? There is no money,” said a migrant worker while shopping, asking to remain anonymous. “I wanted to buy a big sack of rice, but it is too expensive,” he added, pointing to his shopping basket, which contained a single bundle of bread and a small sack of basmati rice.
