Can the Detroit Tigers catch up with the struggling Minnesota Twins?
Minnesota Star Tribune sportswriter Bobby Nightengale joins Days of Roar to discuss how the struggling Minnesota Twins are helping the Detroit Tigers.
BALTIMORE – Colt Keith had no qualms about telling the truth.
As the Detroit Tigers swept the Kansas City Royals earlier this week, the rookie second baseman kept glancing at the electronic away scoreboard on the left-center field wall at Kauffman Stadium to check the Minnesota Twins’ score.
“I’m guilty at least 50 times,” Keith said.
Many on the Tigers team have downplayed the standings in recent weeks and denied paying attention to the scoreboard, but the truth is that everyone has been paying attention to what’s going on, even manager AJ Hinch. The miraculous combination of Tigers wins and Twins losses has dramatically changed the hunt for the third and final spot in the American League wild-card race.
The Tigers and Twins are tied at 80:73, with nine games left in 10 days. The Twins have the head-to-head record.
“We have to keep winning,” said left-hander Tarik Skubal, “and hopefully we can control our own destiny in the end.”
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The Tigers have won 25 of 35 games since Aug. 11; the Twins have lost 22 of 37 games over the same span. Both AL Central teams have the same record, but the Twins’ 7-6 lead in the season series would secure them a playoff spot if the teams finish with the same record – no more games 163.
Therefore, the Tigers basically need to have a better record than the Twins over their final nine games to advance to the postseason for the first time since 2014. The third wild-card team will likely face the AL West champion — likely the Houston Astros — in a best-of-three series from Oct. 1-3, with all games on the road.
“We feel like it’s house money,” said outfielder Matt Vierling, who played in the 2022 World Series with the Philadelphia Phillies. “Honestly, we didn’t really think we would be able to get here because we’re in this position. Being here makes us really grateful and happy. We’re all starting to believe in it.”
Without any expectations, the Tigers rose up the table.
But now everything is at stake.
TEAM LEADER: Matt Vierling is the leader of the young Tigers in the race for the postseason
Before their Aug. 11 game, the Tigers — who traded Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Mark Canha and Carson Kelly at the July 30 trade deadline, a precursor to the release of Gio Urshela — were eight games below their .500 record and 10 games back of the wild-card race, with a 0.2% chance of making the postseason, according to FanGraphs.
A lot has changed in 40 days.
As of Friday, the Tigers have a 42.3% chance of making the postseason.
“We won a couple of series and then all four games against the (Chicago) White Sox,” Vierling said. “All of a sudden we thought, ‘Holy cow, we’re .500.’ Since then, we’ve been able to play well. Of course, we try, but we don’t put any pressure on ourselves to get here. It just happened.”
The Tigers began their improbable push into the postseason with two All-Stars in Skubal and Riley Greene, the return of Kerry Carpenter from the injured list, the resurgence of Parker Meadows from Triple-A Toledo, an unorthodox pitching strategy using openers and bulk relievers to support a rotation down to just two starters, Triple-A relievers like Sean Guenther who thrived in crucial situations, and a World Series-winning manager who pushed all the right buttons.
Hinch, who won the title with the Houston Astros in 2017, has preached the same mantra – win today’s game — since the beginning of 2021, his first of four seasons with the Tigers.
It will pay off with victories in September 2024.
“It’s easy to say we don’t think about it, but everyone thinks about it subconsciously,” Skubal said. “We’re doing a good job of trying to win today’s game. Tomorrow’s game, we’ll worry about it tomorrow. That’s going to be very important for this group in the long run. We’re young, so it’s up to us.”
PITCH PLAN: How the Tigers’ pitching strategy with Scott Harris and AJ Hinch leads to victories
The pitching staff, led by the soon-to-be AL Cy Young Award winner, has been the most notable success story since August 11, ranking first in MLB with a 2.50 ERA. The offense ranks 10th in MLB during that span with a wRC+ of 107, which is 7% above league average.
The final piece of the puzzle was that the Twins spent the last month in free fall.
Here’s the remaining schedule for the Tigers: three road games against the Baltimore Orioles (85-68), three games against the Tampa Bay Rays (75-78) at Comerica Park and three games against the White Sox (36-117) at Comerica Park. And for the Twins? Three road games against the Boston Red Sox (76-76), followed by three games against the Miami Marlins (56-96) at Target Field and three games against the Orioles at Target Field.
The Tigers have the easiest remaining schedule in MLB (a combined winning percentage of .427) and need to win one more game than the Twins, whose schedule ranks seventh easiest (.473).
“That’s how I’ve always managed,” said Hinch about his tireless win today’s game Mantra. “I believe in this sport, in leading to winning streaks and good streaks in baseball. Given the attitude this team has adopted player by player, I think it was good for us to get back to winning ways.”
The next nine games will bring new challenges for the Tigers.
The Tigers, the third-youngest team in MLB, have played all of their games over the past two weeks like postseason games, and while the young players have remained relaxed behind the scenes, every pitch and every swing counts more.
Somehow the Tigers managed to catch up with the Twins in the wildcard standings and expectations for the postseason steadily increased.
Now the pressure is increasing.
“I don’t think there was a particular moment,” said Keith, who enjoyed looking at the scoreboard as the Cleveland Guardians trounced the Twins while the Tigers swept the Royals, “but the last couple of weeks have been that if we continue to play good baseball, we have a good chance of making the playoffs and going even further.”
Contact Evan Petzold at [email protected] or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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