TAMPA, Florida. – We are closely monitoring the chances of formation in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has increased the probability of formation within the next seven days to 40 percent.

This development could be due to the Central American Gyre, a seasonal low-pressure system that can occasionally create more concentrated low-pressure systems.

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The organized low may then strengthen into a named storm. Weather models show that the likelihood of this process occurring later this month is increasing.

If such a development were to occur in the Caribbean, it would likely spread north or northwest to the Gulf of Mexico.

There are still a number of unresolved variables that would determine the path of the system beyond this point.

Therefore, it is too early to speculate exactly where this will go next in the Gulf. The Gulf Coast will need to carefully monitor the progress of this slowly forming system over the next week or two.

Now is a good time to make sure you have hurricane gear and a plan, as we are still in our statistically most active month of the Atlantic hurricane season.

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