ASTANA – The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) has published an analytical report on the food security and agro-industrial potential of the Eurasian region. The report predicts that Kazakhstan will be the largest producer of food surpluses by 2035, mainly due to growing grain production.
Photo credit: Kazinform.
Countries in the region face enormous challenges such as land and water scarcity, as well as more complex economic conditions that force them to increasingly rely on food imports.
“By 2035, food self-sufficiency in Central Asia is unlikely to improve much, and in some countries it may even decline. Agricultural development is hampered by limited land availability, water scarcity and slow technological advances, while rapid population growth will further strain agriculture and food security,” the report said.
If government programs are implemented effectively, Kazakhstan could increase its food security to 127-143%, while the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan could make some progress. However, Tajikistan’s food security is expected to decline to 53%.
Regional self-sufficiency
According to experts, the level of self-sufficiency in the Eurasian region, which consists of the five countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, is 80 to 95 percent.
The highest self-sufficiency rates are recorded for cereals (132%) and oilseeds (151%), and the lowest for fruit (65%). However, there are significant differences in food production and consumption in these countries.
The southern countries are leaders in fruit and vegetable production, while the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan face challenges in the production of vegetable oils, grains and sugar. Kazakhstan also has problems with sugar production and fruit and berry production.
Despite progress in food security, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan remain dependent on food imports and are therefore net importers of food. In contrast, Kazakhstan is the only net exporter in terms of energy value, and yet food shortages persist in Central Asia.
The region’s diet is also unbalanced, dominated by cheap plant products. Per capita consumption of certain foods is below the norms accepted in Central Asian countries, particularly in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan for dairy products, meat, fruit and vegetables, and in the Kyrgyz Republic for meat, fish, eggs and vegetable oil.
Impact of climate change on agriculture
Central Asia is particularly vulnerable to climate change because temperatures there are rising faster than the global average. Over the past three decades, average annual temperatures have increased by 0.5 degrees Celsius and are expected to increase by 2.0 to 5.7 degrees Celsius by 2085. Climate change threatens agricultural production and food security as glacier retreat may reduce river flows and soil dries out, leading to significant crop declines. Soil drying could lead to a 30 to 50 percent drop in crop yields.
Natalia Kilyazova, head of the pasture feeding department at the Kyrgyz Research Institute, spoke about the multifaceted impacts of global warming.
Kilyazova pointed out that climate change affects crop selection, as many plants have specific temperature requirements for healthy growth, potentially limiting their cultivation.
“Changes in precipitation patterns influenced by climate change can also have significant impacts: droughts due to insufficient rainfall can lead to crop failures. In contrast, excessive rainfall can cause flooding or soil erosion. In addition, changing temperature patterns can promote the spread of pests and diseases, further reducing crop yields,” she said.
Agricultural support in Kazakhstan
The Kazakh government is investing significantly in the agricultural sector. In 2023, 1.2 trillion tenge (2.5 billion US dollars) will be spent on subsidies, loans and Investment projects. A key initiative is the introduction of a unified state information system on subsidies, free for farmers and integrated with all state databases. The system includes waiting lists to ensure that small and medium-sized farms have fair access to subsidies. In addition, greenhouse farmers can apply for subsidies to cover the costs of electricity, gas and coal during the off-season for growing vegetables in covered areas.
The Auyl Amanaty (Village Heritage) program, which aims to increase rural incomes through the development of agricultural cooperation, will receive 100 billion tenge in 2024.
In the first half of the year, 410 billion tenge (854 million US dollars) was invested in the agricultural sector, and a total of 1.7 trillion tenge (3.5 billion US dollars) is planned for the year. Since the beginning of the year, over 50 investment projects worth more than 30 billion tenge (62.5 million US dollars) have been launched in Kazakhstan’s agricultural sector.
The government has also approved a comprehensive plan to increase the share of processed products to 70% by 2028 with a total investment of 372 billion tenge ($775 million). Of this amount, 150 billion tenge ($312.5 million) is allocated for investments, while 222 billion tenge ($462.5 million) will be used as working capital.
Regional cooperation for food security
According to the report, ensuring national food security must remain the top priority of the Central Asian countries’ agricultural and food policies. While increasing agricultural exports could help to fully exploit resource potential and have a positive impact on the rural economy, they should be treated as a secondary objective so as not to jeopardise food security.
Climate change is expected to play a critical role in the future agricultural development of the region’s drylands, potentially reducing crop yields and livestock productivity. Adapting to these changes through land reclamation and water-saving technologies will be critical to maintaining agricultural productivity.
The experts highlighted the major challenges Central Asian countries face in ensuring food security. However, they also see potential for long-term solutions through increased cooperation under the new framework approved by the Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation Program. This framework emphasizes three key areas: sharing best agricultural practices, cooperating on food production and supply chains, and expanding trade by improving food safety systems. Addressing these issues could attract foreign direct investment in the region’s food industry, increase supply, meet food demand, and expand markets beyond Central Asia.
Experts widely agree that comprehensive regional cooperation is essential to effectively address food security challenges. Although countries already work together and have signed numerous agreements, further strengthening cooperation in areas such as goods transit, industrial production and energy could enhance the region’s resilience, particularly on food security issues.
The article was originally published in Kazinform.
