A life of fantasy isn’t always all fun and games, but that doesn’t mean we don’t appreciate the ups and downs that each season brings.
Accordingly, we will be chronicling some of the ups and downs of the fantasy calendar over the course of the 2024 season. And so it continues: We are in Week 1…
Life goes by pretty quickly, so if you don’t stop and look around every now and then, you might accidentally join 38 fantasy football leagues.
I’m kidding. Not really. While I’ve committed to joining no more than 20 managed leagues this year, your boy Ian is at least partially responsible for over three dozen redraft, dynasty, and (currently) guillotine teams.
My Tuesday nights will be a nightmare caused by the waiver wire for the better part of the next four months. I will be emotionally numb to most of the outcomes on the field, as they will be simultaneously good for some teams and bad for others. And there is no one to blame but the man in the mirror.
That means: What if it works for more teams than not?? What if Malik Nabers every chance I’ve had over the last three months was actually a great idea? What if it was an even better decision to largely ignore a likely bad Raiders offense? What if this Finally the year in which I spent a large part of my money on Antonio Gibson Doesn’t that make my wife seriously think about finding a new place to live?
With a new fantasy year comes new hope, because anything is possible until the Red Zone countdown reaches zero… and only then will we remember (to celebrate the great Ruth Langmore):
We don’t know shit about f*ck.
Seriously: In the next 72 hours, crazy things can and will happen that *preferably Peter Overzet Impression* turn the world of fantasy football upside down.
A good example of how 60 minutes of football doesn’t necessarily lead to more good is last year’s offense, which ranked 31st here.
Patriots PPR Fantasy Finishes as of Week 1, 2023:
On the other side of the coin, people like Lamar Jackson (QB27), D’Andre Swift (RB73) and Trey McBride (TE30) had a disappointing start to the season before obviously helping many fantasy managers finally win the championship title.
Hell, Tea Higgins And Drake London had as many passes as you did in the first 60 minutes last season. De’Von Achane was a serious scratch!
Don’t get me wrong: Week 1 is important. It is the best and most meaningful data point we can use to move forward in Week 2; the darlings of the Waiver Wire Puka Nacua And Kyren Williams were easy to recognize after their strong debuts. Therefore Matthew Freedman opens on Thursday Fantasy life show explaining that he is most excited for Week 2 to come. That’s a completely crazy statement to make at the start of a Week 1 preview show, but I kind of understand it.
I’m serious: Have you seen some of these “official” depth charts that are actually pretty unofficial? Bengals head coach Zac Taylor literally said their depth chart is meaningless. The Dolphins have apparently paid Jonnu Smith 8.4 million dollars … to be their substitute full-back? Many wanted to suggest that Kyren Williams Working as a punt returner for the Rams was a bad thing, so if Blake Corum Is also the kick returnermakes that Ronnie Rivers the RB1?
It will be great to have real data to work with soon, but still: Week 1 is still only one piece of the puzzle.
I understand that fantasy football is all about overreacting to every little detail, and our Fantasy Life team will continue Consensus rankings And Projections help, well-founded start/seat decisionsbut ultimately, it is not easy to predict the future outcome of a game where the ball is not even round.
Because of the inherent randomness of the biggest sport in the world, it is wise to ask yourself the following three questions before overreacting to anything that happens during a particular game week:
- Was my underperforming fantasy player just unlucky? Every Tuesday I publish “The Sheesh Report,” which breaks down near misses beyond the box score mark such as lost TDs, canceled scores, vultures, and much more. Once Percy Harvin had only 34 total yards on six touches … with not one, not two, but three TDs that cancelled due to penalties. Poor production doesn’t always correlate with poor performance, which is why we always make sure to cover all the weekly moments that make fantasy managers just say, “Oh my goodness!”
- Did the high-performance player in question also have a great performance? Here is Dwain “The Rock” McFarland‘S Utilization Reporting Suite is convenient. It is much easier to predict future peak performance from players who are actively pursuing peak performance. Example: Rachaad White had a fairly dominant share of snaps (79%), rush attempts (57%) and routes (55%) in Week 1 last year, despite his mediocre result as PPR RB36, which should led to some patience among fantasy managers before he finished with RB8 in Week 2.
- Was the good or bad performance largely due to the duel? We are getting better at determining which defense mechanisms are particularly good or bad in a particular facet of the game during the year, but there are already many Discrepancies on paper What to consider before Week 1: A RB who shines against a Broncos defense that currently ranks 31st in PPR points allowed per game shouldn’t be viewed quite as positively as one who goes up against the 49ers’ wild front seven.
We hope we all take that crucial first step toward fantasy football immortality this week and start the season with a win. But what if we don’t? Don’t panic, take a deep breath and consider how much of the loss was because your team is really bad and how much was perhaps due to a botched 60-minute sample size.
Or you can always just blame me and other so-called fantasy football “experts” for not giving you better ranks and advice as a scholar. That works too.
Good luck to everyone and always remember: today is a great day to be great!
