The College Football Playoffs are still a long way off, but Week 2 was an example of why every game still counts in the regular season. After a Week 1 marked by many losses and quick starts, Saturday tempered some expectations with a series of close wins and a potentially decisive upset.

Here are five lessons from Week 2 of the new CFP era.

1. NIU vs. Notre Dame is the perfect surprise for the 12-team format.

One of the main criticisms of the new playoff is that it devalues ​​the regular season. Notre Dame is testing that theory for two weeks. We all rushed to award the Irish one of those 12 spots after they pulled off a hard-fought road win over Texas A&M last week. The schedule was the main reason for that – Notre Dame looked like it was the favorite for the rest of the game, then turned a 28.5-point lead into a surprise 16-14 loss to a Northern Illinois team that finished 7-6 last season.

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Notre Dame became the first team to overreact in the expanded CFP and was an ideal prototype for this. It’s the bluest of bluebloods with a national fan base and a legion of haters, a supposed powerhouse that has failed on the biggest stages over the past few decades and been labeled overrated because of it. The 12-team roster was designed to address those weaknesses and give the Irish a better chance at playoff berths (and wins). The Irish were one of the architects of this format, with former athletic director Jack Swarbrick willing to forgo a first-round bye for a clear path to an at-large bid and a home playoff game. And that’s how everyone assessed it after its Week 1 win in College Station.

Instead, the weak schedule and overrated reputation have already taken their toll. Notre Dame is not out of the playoff picture with a loss, but the margin for error is shrinking; the chances dropped from 73 percent to 44 percent, according to The athlete‘s projection model. Is a two-loss record enough to beat a three-loss SEC or Big Ten team and secure a wild-card spot? And what about the runner-up in the Big 12 or ACC? The Irish may need to win to keep their hopes alive — and Saturday’s performance raises serious questions about their potential to do so.

On the other hand, NIU has entered the race for a spot in the Group of 5 playoffs. The Huskies still have a road trip to NC State in a few weeks, but if they can win the MAC and finish the season with one, maybe even two losses, they can compete with one of the best G5 wins of the season.

At the beginning of the season, no one believed that the MAC champion deserved to be in the G5 playoffs. After last Saturday, everyone had Notre Dame in the field. But after two weeks, the CFP chaos is spectacular.

2. Texas is still back, but Michigan is not.

Skeptics who feared Texas was a one-hit wonder were proven wrong after the Longhorns swept the Big House with a 31-12 victory. For the second time in as many seasons, quarterback Quinn Ewers went on the road and led his team to a victory over a top-10 opponent. Last year it was Alabama. This time it was defending champion Michigan, riding a 23-game home winning streak. The Horns dominated from start to finish with Ewers at the helm, finishing 24 of 36 passing for 246 yards and three touchdowns. Equally important is how Ewers managed the game, avoiding the inconsistency and careless turnovers that have hampered him in the past. The talent was never in question, but the maturity was evident Saturday.

The same goes for the drop in performance Michigan has struggled with. That’s not exactly surprising. The entire offseason – when it wasn’t about NCAA investigations or Netflix documentaries – was all about the loss of 13 draft picks to the NFL, as well as head coach Jim Harbaugh and several key staff members. After a slow start last week against Fresno State, the weaknesses showed against a Texas team that was significantly more talented and explosive. Quarterback Davis Warren’s stats – 22 of 33 passes for 204 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions – weren’t miles off Ewers’ performance (aside from the picks), but the eye test said otherwise.

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Texas is one of the best teams the Wolverines will face all season, likely until they travel to Ohio State to close out the regular season. It’s possible Michigan can still make a splash in the Big Ten, but its performance against a national title contender suggests its title defense is doomed.

For the Longhorns, they are currently at the top of the The athlete‘s projection model with a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.

With an impressive win over NC State, Tennessee may have established itself as a true CFP contender. (Jim Dedmon / USA Today)

3. Is Tennessee the contender no one has been talking about?

The Vols followed up their Week 1 win over an FCS opponent with another loss in Week 2, this time to No. 24 NC State. Tennessee pulled out a resounding 51-10 victory over the Wolfpack. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava showed off his dual-player skills with 211 passing yards, 65 rushing yards and three total touchdowns, and the Vols ran all over the place with 249 yards on the ground. But Tennessee’s defense was the more impressive unit, holding NC State to 143 total yards and 10 first downs and forcing three turnovers.

The 14th-ranked Volunteers aren’t really an underdog, but SEC playoff attention is heavily focused on Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Missouri and LSU. Those top four are all ranked in the top 10 of the AP Top 25, but Tennessee has proven itself and will soon have its chances to further cement that claim. Ole Miss, Mizzou or LSU aren’t on the schedule, but the Vols travel to Oklahoma in two weeks, host Bama in October and head to Georgia in November. They need to win at least one of those games, but when we’re talking about the SEC and the playoffs, there’s no smoke on Rocky Top.

4. Clemson is not dead, but the Big 12 is aiming for two.

Dabo and the Tigers were armed with knives drawn after last week’s flop against Georgia, but Saturday’s 66-20 loss to Appalachian State was a reminder not to let them down just yet. As Notre Dame can attest, one week does not make a season. Clemson looked completely outmatched by the Dawgs, but that’s true of most teams. Maybe the Tigers don’t have what it takes to win a national title, but after Florida State’s disastrous start and losses to Georgia Tech and NC State, Clemson absolutely looks like it could make the ACC championship.

If that’s how it goes, would a second-place finish be enough to get into the CFP? Going into the season, most playoff projections gave the ACC a better chance than the Big 12 to put two teams in the field. The general sentiment was that a top-heavy ACC would have the advantage over a Big 12 strong enough to beat each other. That could prove to be true, but after some notable stumbles out of the starting blocks by the ACC, the window is opening a little wider for teams like Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Iowa State and others.

5. Survive to survive.

Style points still count, but only if you win. Saturday’s slate was full of close calls and ugly victories for a handful of playoff contenders. No. 7 Oregon used a last-second field goal to earn its second straight victory, defeating Boise State 37-34. No. 8 Penn State trailed at halftime against Bowling Green and led by just a field goal early in the fourth quarter to win 34-27. No. 15 Oklahoma needed a last-minute safety to hold off Houston. No. 16 Oklahoma State had to overcome a 14-0 deficit in double overtime to win 39-31 over Arkansas, and No. 17 Kansas State turned a 20-10 halftime deficit into a 34-27 road win over Tulane. No. 4 Alabama had the most misleading score of all, beating USF 42-16, and struggled with the Bulls for the second straight season. Bama held a one-point lead early in the fourth quarter before scoring 28 points in the final period.

But in the end, all the favorites won, and that’s all that matters at this stage of the season. It was a bit of a dampener on the hype of the first week, but if these teams can smooth things over, all will be forgotten come December.

The G5 contenders are even more critical. Boise and App State lost to higher-ranked opponents, which hurt their chances a little. Texas State beat UTSA, Memphis beat Troy, and Liberty came back and beat New Mexico State, keeping all three winners in the race.

They are not alone. NIU started the day as a four-touchdown underdog, something everyone took for granted. By sundown, the Huskies had entered the playoff hunt.

(Top photo: Brian Spurlock / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)