For a brief moment, gas was cheaper at a single station in Spokane than in Idaho – clear evidence that election season has begun. It’s expected to be a heated battle over four initiatives that supporters say will save Washingtonians a lot of money while opponents argue they will take billions away from important programs.

Motorists stopping at Towns Liquor Mart pumps on Wednesday saw prices for a gallon of regular gasoline drop from $3.79 to the national average of $3.39. It’s part of a political group’s advertising campaign to convince voters to support Initiative 2117 in November and eliminate the state’s relatively new emissions trading system. That system, created in 2021 by the state’s Climate Commitment Act and implemented in 2023, caps the amount of carbon the state can emit each year and requires the companies that emit the most carbon to apply for an “allocation” to be allowed to emit a portion of that overall cap.

The bill’s sponsors argued that the state’s carbon emissions would fall as the cap declines over time and the substantial revenues would be invested in environmental projects, such as converting the state’s diesel-powered ferries to hybrid-electric models or funding projects to conserve salmon populations. In its first year, the cap-and-trade system raised $2.2 billion.

Although this system is not a gasoline tax, it has raised prices for the state’s fuel refineries, thereby increasing the cost of most of the state’s gasoline. But how much of the rising costs can be attributed to the auctions remains hotly debated.

Let’s Go Washington, the group behind three initiatives to repeal laws passed by the Democratic-led state legislature, promoted cheaper gas at the pumps in text messages and press releases on Wednesday in an effort to lure voters and encourage them to “vote yes and pay less.”

The gas station’s pumps were full Wednesday afternoon as dozens of drivers flocked to the discount store for what resembled a similar event Let’s Go Washington held in Richland in July. None of the attendees The Spokesman-Review spoke with knew about the initiative before the event, underscoring the group’s push to educate and persuade voters.

Let’s Go Washington will reimburse gas station owners for the 40 cents per gallon reduction in gas prices. The political action committee argues that this is proof of how much Washington residents could save if the carbon credit system were eliminated.

“We want people to know what they would pay in a free state compared to this one,” said Brian Heywood, a hedge fund manager, part-time farmer and the brains behind Let’s Go Washington. “If 2117 wins, I think the price of gas will drop 20 to 50 cents.”

Michael Baumgartner, Spokane County Treasurer and a Republican congressional candidate who supports I-2117, said at Wednesday’s event that the actual cost might be closer to 60 cents.

State officials say those numbers are unrealistic. They point out that gas prices are influenced by a number of complicated factors, such as supply chains, refinery capacity and other variables. They argue that it is difficult to separate those factors to understand why gas costs so much. A bill to create transparency in gas prices in the state failed in committee earlier this year.

Andrew Wineke, deputy communications director for the state Department of Environmental Protection, said Wednesday that state officials have been monitoring prices in Oregon, which gets most of its fuel from the same suppliers as Washington residents, to get a rough idea of ​​the climate law’s impact on Washington’s gasoline prices.

When taking into account differences in state gasoline taxes, average prices in Washington were about 10 to 20 cents higher than Oregon earlier this year, and nearly 25 cents higher recently, Wineke said. Confusingly, those higher prices at the pump don’t seem to be related to the higher cost of emissions permits during the last auction, he added.

“Emissions prices have fallen sharply in Washington this year, but the gap between Washington and Oregon has widened,” he said.

Wineke also noted that the highest gas prices in state history were recorded in the summer of 2022, before the carbon credit system was implemented, and that gas prices today are significantly lower than they will be at the same time in 2023 or 2022.

“These major supply and demand factors have a much greater impact on the price we pay at the pump than regulatory policy,” Wineke added.

While the Let’s Go Washington event compared the state’s gas prices to the national average, gas prices in the state have been consistently higher than the rest of the country for at least a decade, which Wineke attributed in part to refining capacity that has not kept pace with the state’s booming population growth. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, gas prices in the state were 47 cents above the national average in early 2023, before the first auction of carbon credits, and were 66 cents higher on Monday, a difference of 19 cents.

However, it is true that some Democrats suggested in early comments that the impact on consumers would be negligible. Governor Jay Inslee said in 2022 that a potential increase in gasoline prices would be “a matter of pennies.”

“There was dishonesty in what was said,” said Heywood, who called the emissions rights system a hidden gasoline tax. “It’s a regressive tax. It hurts the guy who drives a 2001 Honda Accord and hopes to get to work every day.”

The Environment Ministry had expected prices to rise by about 1 to 3 percent, Wineke said. While prices soared last year when the program was introduced, they have recently been moving closer to those earlier predictions, he continued.

Opponents of I-2117 argue that eliminating the carbon credit system would make it easier to quantify the costs to Washington residents, jeopardizing billions of dollars in investments in infrastructure and environmental programs.

“I-2117 would blow a $5.4 billion hole in our transportation plan and put major road projects like the North Spokane Corridor and expanded rapid transit at risk of delay or cancellation,” wrote Kelsey Nyland, a spokeswoman for the No on 2117 campaign. “It will undermine efforts to prevent wildfires and protect healthy forests. And it will mean more air pollution for communities in Spokane, which is already one of the areas in Washington state most affected by unhealthy air.”

The Climate Commitment Act currently accounts for about 30 percent of the state’s transportation budget, Sen. Andy Billig said in an interview Wednesday. Many of the projects currently funded through that program, such as the rehabilitation of the state’s aging ferry system or court-ordered improvements to salmon ecosystems, will continue regardless of whether I-2117 eliminates the carbon credit system, meaning other mega-road projects could be cut to make up the difference, Billig added.

“When that much money is cut from the transportation budget, every road project, including the North Spokane Corridor, is in jeopardy,” he continued.

Revenue from the climate bill will also fund the development of a bus rapid transit system on Division Street in Spokane, improve the Pacific Avenue Greenway, and pay for air quality and clean energy improvements for Eastern Washington University, the Great Northern School District and the Spokane Public Facilities District, as well as other investments. Statewide, the funds have included free bus rides for anyone under 18. Funds from the program will also help Kaiser Aluminum install a new boiler that will reduce emissions.

Heywood, however, is skeptical about how effective the state’s investments are or will be in reducing carbon emissions, arguing that state leaders have not transparently measured the program’s impact.

“There is very little accountability in terms of actually reducing carbon emissions,” Heywood said. “When you impose a truly regressive tax on the people who can least afford it, you have a huge obligation to show that you are doing what you said you would do.”