The tropics are on everyone’s mind as we track a tropical wave that could come too close to us at some point. This weekend we will be watching a tropical wave that appears to be positioning itself between the Yucatan and Cuba and has a 40% chance of forming in the next 7 days.

ON THE TRAIL OF THE TROPICS: Stay one step ahead of the storm’s impact in the Houston area with these tools from KPRC 2

This area is a problem for development due to the slow counterclockwise rotation known as the Central American Gyre. The gyre promotes the formation of thunderstorms and warm water temperatures, making it a problem zone for tropical development.

One factor that determines whether the storm moves east or west is the strength of a trough in the jet stream.

If the jet is weaker, it will push it westward, meaning more potential problems for the Texas coast or Mexico. If the jet is stronger, it will push it eastward, keeping the track closer to Florida. There are still many questions about exactly how the jet will develop and, if so, where it will head.

American models continue to keep the potential storm away from the Texas coast, instead routing it between New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama. The final location of this storm (which will evolve into HELENE as it forms) will continue to change, so check back with us this weekend.

While this would be ideal for Houston, the European model shows a turn to the west, which could mean major tropical problems for us.

High pressure continues to prevail in Houston, which continues to prevent the formation of significant moisture.

So the bottom line is that we only have a few days left until we have a baseline for the weather models to settle on and go from there. Once that happens late this weekend, it will help remove some of the “first guess” errors we still have at the moment. Stay safe in the heat, follow the forecast and we’ll keep you updated as we get more information!