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How to use bookmaker odds to predict a fantasy player’s performance


How to use bookmaker odds to predict a fantasy player’s performance

While there are betting platforms that specialize in fantasy sports betting, these are designed to carefully construct a squad that you hope will score points for you.
This is a completely different world from the actual bookmaker odds offered for things like NFL betting on fixed odds sites.

These Vegas Odds game lines and player traits can be used as a research tool for building fantasy rosters. The odds that fall for the markets can be a good indicator of the strengths of teams and players to base fantasy picks on.


Along with free betting predictions for sports like soccer, American football and ice hockey, this can be a great but often overlooked tool.

For this reason, you should pay attention to the current lines when making your fantasy tips.


accuracy

Bookmakers’ odds are very accurate in terms of implied probability because bookmakers invest a lot of time and money in setting them precisely. It is in a bookmaker’s interest not to give away value unnecessarily and that is why the lines reflect very well what could develop in a game. The best time to check the lines is on the morning of a game because the props simply become much sharper at this time.

Spread for QBs

How to use bookmaker odds to predict a fantasy player’s performance
PHOTO: viarprodesign/Freepik

Spread odds can be helpful when selecting fantasy quarterbacks. A common trend for getting fantasy points from selecting QBs is to look at players who are likely to throw a lot because they are on a team that often falls behind.

This of course assumes that their QB will be extending his arm more to constantly catch up on the scoreboard. But this can be a risky fantasy move because they are likely to be behind often because their passes are not Connect, and you need connected passes from your QB.

Therefore, it tends to be a better option to instead look for quarterbacks who can cover at least a -5 odds range.

Higher points

Higher points mean higher fantasy points. Total lines are the obvious choice for this in bookmaker odds, but it’s worth looking at the separate team totals market first. Look at the team that is the favorite for points, for example maybe the Chicago Bears who are 10 points ahead with a game to play. If the line in the totals market is around 45, bookmakers expect a big scoring effort from the Bears, which can help when selecting quarterback and running back. Finding high total lines in the odds is great, but it’s better to look at which team will contribute the most.

Player Props

It is possible to dig a little deeper with Vegas Odds’ specific player prop lines. A good place to look first is the rushing yards props, which tend to be a little more accurate in terms of what will happen than receiving yards in the NFL

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Some quarterbacks consistently take on heavier and safer running loads than others in the league, making them good fantasy options based on the relevant traits.

As far as receiving yards lines go, it’s best to skip the running backs and focus on tight ends and wide receivers. This is because they earn fantasy points through both rushing and receiving.

Again, the implied probability from rushing rates tends to be a bit more accurate, but the strength of a player’s receiving rates can be used as a good tiebreaker. Use it to decide which player to add to your roster by backing up the receiving yards rates with the rushing yards lines.

Backup research

Because of the accuracy with which bookmakers set their odds, they are a great tool for building a fantasy roster, but Vegas odds can be used in other ways too. You’ve already done your extensive fantasy research anyway, so the odds can be used as an agreement tool to back up your work after you’ve selected your roster.Take as much into account as possible, including line movement. If the overall line of a game is shifting toward a predicted lower-scoring affair, try to figure out why. Is public opinion moving things, is there any news of injuries that could affect your fantasy player’s performance?


In summary

As a fantasy sports player, you should be looking for every advantage, and the bookmakers’ odds could give you that. The weekly player props are especially good for your fantasy game management. The odds are projections of what can happen, and they at least give a good indication of how likely it is, for example, that a player will score a touchdown, since the odds are attempts with precisely calculated probability.


PHOTO: viarprodesign/Freepik

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