To fully understand how the 2024 season might unfold, we need to go beyond general predictions and take a closer look at each team’s schedule. Many of us in the sports community offer our opinions and predictions without really considering the nuances that can make or break a season. Of course, there will be surprises – those surprising wins that no one expected – but it’s important to also consider divisional rivalries, the impact of home-court advantage over away games, the time of year each game is taking place, and even weather conditions that could affect the outcome.

If I looked at each division, I could quickly and without much thought predict the win and loss record – but that’s exactly the problem. In recent years, I’ve taken a more deliberate approach: I make my season predictions only after carefully examining the winner and loser of each individual game. This method ensures a more accurate and thoughtful forecast that goes beyond mere speculation and takes into account the entire context of the season.

As a Buffalo Bills fan, it’s hard not to be optimistic about the team’s chances every season. While history tells me the chances of a winning streak are slim, I also can’t imagine them winning fewer than 10 games with Josh Allen at the helm. So when I analyze each game, I try to do so as objectively as possible. In an article earlier this week, I laid out my prediction for the Bills.

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After analyzing each week of the season, I have determined the division winners and wildcard seeds for each conference.

2024 NFC Division Winners Prediction

The NFC divisions will be fiercely competitive during the 2024 regular season. Here are my predictions for how each division will play out:

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys (13-4)

This division will likely remain tight until the end, as both the Cowboys and Eagles are 13-4. However, the Cowboys win the tiebreaker to secure the top spot in the NFC East.

NFC West: San Francisco 49ers (13-4)

The NFC West is a very competitive division where all four teams can put together solid seasons. However, the nature of divisional play makes it difficult for anyone to shine. The 49ers are the standout team with a record of 13-4, while teams like the Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals will struggle to stay on top due to the stiff competition they face within the division.

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NFC North: Detroit Lions (14-3)

The days of the NFC North being dominated by the Green Bay Packers are over. The Lions will emerge as the best in the division with a 14-3 record and secure the top seed in the NFC, ushering in a new era in the North. While the Packers remain competitive, the Lions have the talent to lead the way. The Chicago Bears, on the other hand, are on the mend but are still a year away from making any serious pushes.

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

The NFC South continues to be a division in flux, with no clear dominant team. Both the Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to finish 10-7, but Atlanta will win the tiebreaker and take the division title. For the rest of the South, it’s another year of rebuilding as teams try to regain their footing.

NFC Wildcard Teams: Philadelphia Eagles (13-4), Green Pay Packers (12-5), Los Angeles Rams*

*The Buccaneers and Bears also finish the season tied with the Rams at 10-7, narrowly missing the playoffs due to tiebreaker scenarios.

2024 AFC Division Winners Prediction

The AFC is packed with strong teams and exciting duels. This is how I imagine the division races will unfold:

AFC East: Buffalo Bills (12-5)

For the fifth year in a row, the Bills will be looking to capture the AFC East crown, although the road to get there will be more difficult this time. A challenging schedule includes games against the Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens, as well as the ever-competitive division rivalries against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The key to Buffalo’s success lies with Josh Allen. His health and ability to inspire his teammates will be crucial.

While the Bills hold the top spot, both the Miami Dolphins (11-6) and the New York Jets (10-7) will reach the playoffs as the sixth and seventh wildcard seeds, respectively.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

This prediction should come as no surprise to anyone. The Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, will once again dominate the AFC West. The Chiefs’ defense continues to improve, making them a versatile force. The rest of the division is in flux, and no team is currently positioned to seriously challenge Kansas City. Expect the Chiefs to maintain control and finish at the top of the division with relative ease.

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AFC North: Baltimore Ravens (14-3)

The AFC North will be a two-way battle between the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals, but the Ravens come out on top with a 14-3 record to secure the top seed and a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Led by a strong offense and a consistently strong defense, Baltimore will be a force. The Bengals, with a 12-5 record, will still have a strong season and make the playoffs as a wildcard team.

AFC South: Houston Texans (12-5)

The Houston Texans are on the rise, fueled by a young, exciting roster with plenty of offensive firepower, an embarrassing abundance of players if you will, and a defense that continues to improve. The rest of the division will likely underperform, allowing Houston to comfortably win the title and return to the playoffs.

AFC Wild Card Teams: Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and New York Jets

Now that the 2024 NFL season has begun, one thing is certain: Each team’s path will be shaped by more than just talent on paper. Surprises, divisional rivalries, and unforeseen factors like injuries and weather conditions will play a major role in determining the final standings. While these predictions provide a solid outlook on which teams are on track for success, the true excitement of the NFL lies in the unpredictability of each week. Carefully analyzing each game will bring us closer to a better understanding of how the season may play out, but even with careful forecasting, surprises are inevitable. As fans, all we can do is wait, watch, and enjoy the ride.

Sara Larson is a writer for Buffalo Rumblings and SBNation and is deeply rooted in the world of Buffalo Bills coverage. In addition to her writing, Sara is a content creator for shows like “Unplugged” and “The Crew” and previously hosted “Line 2 Gain” and “Three Man Rush.” ​​She is currently the Podcast and Vidcast Director for the Rumblings Network, where she oversees a variety of engaging content for Bills fans. You can follow her on Twitter/X @sara_larson.

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