The Atlantic hurricane season continues to drag on and is already halfway over. The number of storms so far is just below average at seven.
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Hurricane forecasters are eyeing a new potential storm as the Atlantic hurricane season passes its halfway point. So far, the season has not seen an exceptionally high number of storms, despite early warnings of a hyperactive season.
Hurricane forecasters are now turning their attention to the Caribbean, where a low-pressure system could form late this weekend or early next week, the National Hurricane Center said. The hurricane center said this system could slowly develop into the middle of next week as it slowly moves north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The season continues to plod along and is already more than halfway through. So far, the number of storms (seven) is slightly below average, while the number of hurricanes (four) is about average. For a variety of reasons, the season has not yet met many of the preseason predictions.
“There are increasing signals among the ensembles of global long-term models that the next storm could be brewing in the western Caribbean in the coming days,” said meteorologist Brian McNoldy of the University of Miami on his blog.
If the system, which has yet to form, becomes a named storm, it would be Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 season.
What is the Central American vortex?
The system in question is likely to form using the energy of what is known as a Central American vortex, according to AccuWeather. This is a large but weak, slow-moving storm that forms over Central America.
The vortex can be a source of tropical development both early and late in the season, according to Weather.com. This mid-season development is unusual, experts say, but could contribute to the formation of a storm that could hit the United States:
“Given the typical warm temperatures in the region and the energy of the Central American vortex, there is the potential for any system that forms over the western Caribbean and into the central Gulf to quickly intensify and move into the United States,” said Alex DaSilva, hurricane expert at AccuWeather.
Where could the storm go?
Computer models are forecasting a wide range of outcomes for the system: There’s a “solid signal of development, but a wide range as to the possible final alignment,” NOAA meteorologist Andy Hazelton noted on X. “There are a lot of moving parts and uncertainties with these Central American cyclone constellations. It’s a good idea to at least review your hurricane plan if you’re anywhere between South Florida and the western Gulf.”
NOAA meteorologist Tomer Berg said on X: “There has been a lot of talk about a possible tropical cyclone in the Caribbean and Gulf next week.” While there is a real indication of a storm, the details are less clear, Berg admits, cautioning against fixating on individual model calculations, some of which show a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.
Remains of Gordon are still out there
The remnants of former Tropical Storm Gordon are still drifting across the Atlantic, far from land. Meteorologists believe that it could strengthen again in the next few days: “Environmental conditions may become more conducive to development later this week, and a tropical depression or storm may form again in a few days as the system slowly moves northward across the central subtropical Atlantic,” the National Hurricane Center said.
