Tensions are escalating in Sinaloa as factions of the historically linked but now divided Sinaloa seem to be heading towards intensified conflicts.

The arrest of Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, co-founder of the cartel and still one of its most important figures, has intensified the rivalry between two groups: the “Mayiza”, loyal to Zambada, and the “Chapitos”, led by the sons of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán. This division has heightened security concerns and sparked fears of violence in Culiacán, the cartel’s stronghold, according to a new analysis by the trade magazine InSight Crime.

To illustrate the increasing tensions, the media described the current situation in the town of La Loma, which has just over a thousand inhabitants and is located near Federal Highway 15D, an area considered the border between the territories controlled by the Mayiza and the Chapitos. After Zambada’s arrest, speculation grew that he had been betrayed by Chapitos member Joaquín Guzmán López, further straining relations between the factions.

The arrest led to an increased military presence in Sinaloa; about 1,000 soldiers were deployed to maintain order. There are already reports of violence; on August 17, seven people were killed in Elota, including several Mayiza members. Earlier, on August 2, six people were killed in an alleged confrontation with the army in La Loma, sparking concern among residents who fear further escalation.

The divide between the Chapitos and the Mayiza extends to the prison system, where inmates are now more afraid of having to choose sides. The Chapitos’ alleged betrayal is considered a serious violation of the cartel’s rules, and although there have been no outbreaks of violence so far, there is considerable potential for conflict.

After El Mayo’s capture, his son Ismael “Mayito Flaco” Zambada is now in charge of the Mayiza.. However, sources indicate that he wants to avoid direct retaliation in order to remain as low-key as possible and evade government scrutiny. Nevertheless, tensions continue to rise in border communities like La Loma, and both residents and cartel members are bracing for the possibility of violence.

There are already ongoing proxy conflicts between the factions near the US border in Sonora and Baja California. These battles, which are primarily for control of drug smuggling routes, have intensified since the capture of El Mayo. Despite the internal cartel conflicts, the flow of drugs, especially synthetic drugs such as fentanyl and methamphetamine, continues largely unhindered, indicating the resilience and decentralization of the drug trade.