Welcome to The wrong reading. This weekly article uses advanced team-level metrics to preview the week’s upcoming matchups. The goal is to understand how an upcoming matchup might unfold in terms of each offensive player’s ability to execute their game plan. How successful will they be at passing? How much will they be able to run with the ball?
It’s impossible to answer these questions definitively, but by examining the advanced metrics, we can better understand dynamics that may not show up in the match report every week. We can use these metrics to find hidden signals that might indicate how a team wants to play football and how likely they are to be able to play the way they want against an upcoming opponent.
The numbers below include Week 1 as well as the final six weeks of 2023. This means that personnel changes are not fully reflected in these numbers – in cases where it matters, I will point that out. But we can still get a good idea of what to expect from each of these teams. I will highlight the key features of the matchup below each graphic.
New York Giants at Washington Commanders
We can ignore many of the Commanders’ passing stats. Most of these games took place Jayden DanielsBut Washington should be concerned about its offensive line. Only two teams have allowed a higher pressure rate.
This is especially problematic against the Giants, who have the second-highest blitz rate in the league. However, this aggressive style makes New York’s secondary somewhat vulnerable – only four teams allow more spacing on average than the Giants.
The Commanders are last in the league in passing yards per play, EPA per pass play, and pressure rate. Combined with New York’s league-leading average spacing, that could be a recipe for some great passing plays. Malik Nabers is no longer injured and hopes to build on his debut performance. Wan’Dale Robinson who has the best matchup.
Neither team should be afraid to run the ball. The only caveat is that New York has the second-lowest box stacked rate, but Washington’s defense stacks boxes more than average. The Giants could underperform on the ground. The Commanders should be able to get rushing yards against a New York defense that ranks in the bottom six in many advanced rushing defense metrics.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
No team allows more pressure than the Titans. The Jets don’t blitz much, but their tight coverage allows them to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks and limit their opponents’ yards per play and EPA. This is not a good passing game for Tennessee. The Titans could try to move the ball on the ground. New York loses a lot of yards after contact and is vulnerable to explosive plays.
While most of the Jets’ statistics reflect the presence of Aaron Rodgershis debut in 2024 was at least slightly disappointing. Nevertheless, he and Garret Wilson will look to take advantage of a Tennessee defense that doesn’t generate much pressure or get to quarterbacks as quickly. Rodgers’ average time to throw in Week 1 was 2.47 seconds — faster than the Jets’ numbers before this game and much faster than the Titans’ average time to pressure.
New York’s rushing statistics are surprisingly poor for a team that Breece Hall. It may seem like good news that only two teams defend with six or fewer players in the box more often than Tennessee. Still, they were able to stop the run, which at least suggests that their scheme is not a limiting factor in the quality of their run defense. Hall could score more of his points through the air this week.
