With Minnesota scoring nearly double digits in Game 1 of the WNBA playoff series against Phoenix, we’re turning our attention to Napheesa Collier’s markets to find some value. Find out below why we think she’ll score big in Game 1 against the Mercury.
With the best record in the West, the Minnesota Lynx open the first round of the playoffs against a Phoenix Mercury team that struggled to reach the finish line.
The Lynx are favorites at home by ten points, but my predictions for the Lynx vs. Mercury game are that Napheesa Collier will step up.
Find out why in my WNBA picks for Sunday, September 22.
Predictions for Mercury vs. Lynx
My best bet
Napheesa Collier Over 31.5 points, rebounds and assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
A big reason why the Minnesota Lynx easily rose to the top of the West this season is the play of Napheesa Collier.
The 27-year-old is an unstoppable force for the Lynx, leading the team in points per game (20.4) and rebounds per game (9.7) while also dishing out the second-most assists per game (3.4).
In four games against the Phoenix Mercury this season, the four-time All-Star averaged 32.4 points, rebounds and assists, despite playing 33.9 minutes per game in those matchups – less than her regular-season average of 34.7 minutes.
It’s probably safe to assume she’ll play even more in a playoff game – over 35 minutes – and if she continues to put the pressure on Phoenix like she has all season, she should surpass that number.
Collier was at her best as a shooter against the Mercury, hitting a whopping 62.5% of her threes and 90.9% of her free throws. That will benefit her in Game 1, as Phoenix has allowed the most threes per game this season (9.4).
However, it’s their rebounding and playmaking that should put them at the top. The Mercury allow the most rebounds per game (37.0) and have the second most assists per game (22.0).
In three of her four regular season games against Phoenix, Collier finished with double-digit rebounds – she also averaged more assists (3.8) against the Mercury than in the regular season (3.4).
Collier proved last year that she thrives in the playoff spotlight, averaging 33.2 points, rebounds and assists in a three-game series against the Connecticut Sun.
Mercury vs. Lynx – Accumulator bet on the same game (SGP)
Napheesa Collier Over 31.5 points/rebounds/ace
Bridget Carleton 2+ Threesome
Kahleah Copper Under 16.5 points
30% boost available
What makes Minnesota such a dangerous opponent this season is the fact that a superstar like Collier is surrounded by quality 3-point shooters like Kayla McBride, Alanna Smith and Bridget Carleton.
Canadian Carleton has an important first game against the Mercury. She has made an incredible 44.4% of her three-pointers this year and is averaging 2.3 points per game – she has scored at least twice in 26 of 39 games.
She has also been in top form recently, scoring 2+ in 11 of her last 14 games while averaging 2.6 goals per game.
Collier and Carleton are on the verge of breaking out and the Mercury need Kahleah Copper to get back into form, but I’m not so sure she can do it.
Minnesota allows the second fewest points per game (75.6) and ranks second in defensive rating (96.5). The Lynx allow the league’s lowest field goal percentage (41.0%) – and both the lowest 3-point percentage (30.1%) and the lowest 2-point percentage (46.4%).
Meanwhile, Copper has remained under 16.5 points in seven of her last eight games and is averaging just 14 points per game.
Learn how to bet on the same game in an accumulator bet with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mercury vs. Lynx odds
Mercury vs Lynx Live Odds
Get the latest WNBA odds for Mercury vs. Lynx for tonight.
Opening odds Mercury vs. Lynx
- Spread: Phoenix +10.5 | Minnesota -10.5
- Money line: Phoenix +400 | Minnesota -550
- Over/Under: Over 159.5 | Under 159.5
Odds for the Mercury vs. Lynx series
Mercury vs Lynx spread and over/under analysis
- Minnesota entered the race as a 10.5-point favorite, with most bookmakers putting the score between -9.5 and -10 shortly before the game began.
- The Lynx are 25-14-1 ATS this season, while the Mercury are 20-18-1.
- The over/under value was initially at 159.5, but has since dropped to 157.5 to 158.5.
- Minnesota is just 15-23-2 in over betting this season and Phoenix is 19-19-1.
Mercury vs. Lynx trend
The Lynx have covered the spread in 11 of their last 15 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Mercury vs. Lynx here.
Game info Mercury vs. Lynx
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN |
| Date: | Sunday, 22.9.2024 |
| Tip: | 5:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Mercury vs. Lynx – latest injuries
Mercury: Charisma Osborne (out), Rebecca Allen (out)
Lynx: There are no injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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