The Mets continue their final home game of the season on Tuesday and hope to keep up with the Braves in the race for the NL wild card.

Although the Mets received positive news on MVP candidate Francisco Lindor’s MRI scan, he was unable to play in Monday’s win over the Nationals and is not expected to play on Tuesday either.

Even without Lindor, the Mets are clear favorites for Tuesday’s duel, in which Mitchell Parker of Washington meets Tylor Megill.

I will analyze the matchup and give a prediction and tip for Game 2 of the Nationals vs. the Mets. First, let’s take a look at the latest odds.

Odds for Nationals vs. Mets

Prediction Nationals vs. Mets

Parker started the season in great form, posting a 3.34 ERA in his first 14 starts, but his performance has declined significantly since then.

Since July 1, the Nationals left-hander has posted a 5.37 ERA and a 4.24 xFIP in 63 2/3 innings, with a Stuff+ of 88 and a Pitching+ of 97 during that span.

He also struggled outside of Nationals Park this season, posting an away ERA of 6.25, a WHIP of 1.61, and a K-BB% of 10.8.

Parker performed excellently last time against the Marlins and also dominated against the Rockies on August 21.

However, those lineups have posted wRC+s of 61 and 50, respectively, over the past month, and now he’s facing the Mets, who have been dominant against left-handed pitchers.

Last month, they posted a wRC+ of 117 against lefties. They also have the third-best hard hit rate against lefties and the sixth-best BB/K ratio.

The Mets’ current situation offers manager Carlos Mendoza a good opportunity to bring promising young player Luisangel Acuña into the lineup for a few games.

The Nationals were also missing some key players on Monday, as CJ Abrams was not in the starting lineup and Alex Call remained out of the game. However, Abrams was available as a reserve and could return on Tuesday.

Call had a .368 batting average against right-handers and a .971 OPS, so his absence certainly makes life a little easier for Megill. Last month, the Nationals ranked 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers with a .685 OPS.

In three starts since a tune-up in the minors, Megill has posted a 2.35 ERA and a 2.99 xFIP. During that span, he has struck out 10.57 batters per nine innings and holds a Pitching+ of 108.

The Mets’ bullpen, considered the better of the two units, has an ERA of 3.50 over the past month, compared to the Nationals’ 4.04.

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Nationals vs. Mets tip

This is a good time to acquire Megill as he takes on the Nationals’ struggling offense, while the Mets are likely good candidates to capitalize on Parker’s poor away performance.

Anything better than +135 makes me think it makes sense to bet on the Mets to cover the run line on Tuesday.

Choose: Mets -1.5 (+135, bet365)

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Nicholas Martin rates the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles so bettors can reach their own conclusions, but also has 180 units more in verified picks himself on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X at @nickm_hockey.