The Mets held their own against the Braves again on Thursday, winning their fourth game in a row thanks to another strong offensive performance.
For the second time this week, Christopher Sanchez of the Phillies will face David Peterson.
Both starters were outstanding in Sunday’s game in Philadelphia.
Sanchez allowed just six hits and one earned run in seven innings, while Peterson allowed just four hits and one earned run in 7 1/3 IP.
These performances are especially impressive considering how excellent both teams have been against left-handed pitchers this season.
Odds for Phillies vs. Mets
| team | Money line | Execute line | In total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies | -115 | -1.5 (+155) | o7.5 (-105) |
| Mets | -105 | +1.5 (-190) | u7.5 (-115) |
Prediction for Phillies vs. Mets
The Mets have posted a third-best wRC+ of 128 against left-handed pitchers since August 1 and are second in the season splits.
Losing Francisco Lindor’s .879 OPS against lefties obviously hurts, but Luisangel Acuna’s excellent play has helped soften that loss, possibly even enough to force Carlos Mendoza to make some difficult lineup decisions once Lindor is healthy again.
In 557 PAs against left-handed pitchers since the All-Star break, the Phillies have posted a wRC+ of 133 with an OPS of .836, which ranks first in baseball.
They have the fourth highest BB/K ratio during this period and are by far the first in terms of the hard hit ratio (40.3%).
Peterson has remained in top form with a 2.22 ERA over his last five starts, but he has a more modest underlying profile over that span, including a 4.00 xFIP, 41% hard hit rate and .256 xBA.
During that time, he averaged a Stuff+ rating of 93 and struck out just 6.96 batters per nine.
Sanchez has a 2.27 ERA in his last 31 2/3 innings and has a more compelling base profile.
He holds a 2.74 xFIP during that time and has struck out 9.66 batters per nine. The pitching models are also better on Sanchez, as he has a Stuff+ rating of 106 and a Pitching+ rating of 110.
However, Sanchez allowed hard contact 53% of the time in Sunday’s game against the Mets and was lucky on some balls in play, which allowed him to have such a dominant performance.
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Phillies vs. Mets tip
This game undoubtedly features a battle of top-notch pitchers, but asking two left-handed starters to shut down those attacks in consecutive matchups is no easy task.
The total number of 7.5 is low and I think that the respect for Friday’s starters is set a little too high.
Bet “Over” on anything better than -125.
Best bet: Over 7.5 (-105, BetMGM)
Why you can bet on the New York Post
Nicholas Martin rates the NHL, MLB and NFL for the New York Post. He strives to include relevant game notes in his articles so bettors can reach their own conclusions, but also has 180 units more in verified picks himself on a sports betting app. You can find Nick on X at @nickm_hockey.
