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This continues Judge’s streak from last week, in which he hit 11 hard-hit line drives + fly balls (second most in the MLB at this point). He only has two home runs, which is largely due to his bad luck with the way he hits the ball.

The pitcher he’s up against isn’t bad by any means, as the Mariners’ Bryce Miller is on the mound tonight. Miller is admittedly worse against left-handed pitchers (we’ll get into that later), but this is also a hitter-pitcher matchup that has the hitter extremely favored.

Over the last three years, the two have faced each other at the plate six times, and Judge has hit 3 for 6 against Miller, with two home runs and another double. One of those home runs came earlier this season, when Judge hit the ball away from the bat at 103.5 mph, hitting a home run that left no doubt.

In addition to Judge, we also bet on Juan Soto to hit a home run in the same game, as he also has excellent stats against Miller.

• Home run by Aaron Judge (+290): 1 unit
• Juan Soto Home Run (+340) FanDuel: 0.75 units

Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+375) BetMGM

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

Our picks today revolve around a specific theme: guys we’ve been playing a lot lately. That continues with this pick on Shohei Ohtani.

Ohtani was on our list yesterday and delivered a 402-footer that was 105.3 mph from a standing start and would have been a home run in all 30 stadiums.

He continued his incredible streak of recent success, hitting 10 home runs in the last month (the most in the MLB) and also hitting the most hard hit line drive + fly balls in the league (40). The next batter has 35.

As for the pitchers’ matchup, Ohtani is facing left-handed Ryan Weathers, but we’re not afraid of the left-handed versus left-handed matchup.

During the same time period (last month), Ohtani has hit three home runs against lefties in just 22 at-bats, with a barrel rate of 18%, a fly ball rate of 50%, and a hard hit rate of 57%. So while he’s better against RHP, it’s not like he can’t hit lefties, and we’re also getting a discount at +375.

Shohei Ohtani Home Run (+375): 0.75 units

Bryce Harper Home Run (+430) FanDuel

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

For our last game of the day, we focus on another player who joined us yesterday: Bryce Harper.

We liked Harper yesterday because he was hitting rockets. That continued yesterday and he has another great pitching matchup tonight, so we feel good about going right back to him.

The home run he hit yesterday was 104 mph and 394 feet, and another home run was 100.4 mph and 352 feet. That means the ball has now left Harper’s bat five times in a row at over 95 mph, including four times at over 100 mph.

He’s up against the Brewers’ Freddy Peralta, who is a potential home run prop pitcher. Over the last two months, he’s allowed a home run in every 20 at-bats, with a HR/9 of 1.67.

He’s admittedly been better against lefties, but as a righty, this is a matchup that should favor Harper. Peralta has only allowed three home runs to lefties during this stretch, but all three have come off his 4-seam fastball, which is Harper’s biggest advantage.

Peralta throws the 4-seamer to left-handed hitters nearly 55% of the time, but unfortunately for him, batters can hit off his fastball. Of all four pitches in Peralta’s arsenal, batters have the highest ISO rate, slugging, and wOBA with his 4-seamer. In total, 17 of the 25 home runs he’s hit this season have come from his 4-seam FB.

Harper, meanwhile, has great stats against the 4-seamer, with a 54% hard hit rate and a .268 ISO rate. Next, Peralta throws the changeup 25% of the time, against which Harper also has good stats.

He has a .313 batting average against changeups, a .328 ISO, a .642 slugging rate, and a .445 wOBA. For comparison, that would be the fifth-best average, second-best ISO, second-best slugging rate, and second-best wOBA in the league if you extrapolate that out over a full season.

Harper is out again today.

Bryce Harper Home Runs (+430): 0.75 units

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