Sunday Night Baseball: Astros vs. Orioles:
The division leaders face off on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball to conclude a series that was worth the price of admission. The Orioles have seen heroics from Anthony Santander and Jackson Holliday in the last two games after the Astros saw a standout performance from Spencer Arrighetti in Game 1 on Thursday night.
So the Astros need a win to tie, the Orioles need a win to win the series, and the duel between Yusei Kikuchi and Dean Kremer will kick things off.
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How to watch Astros vs. Orioles
Where: ESPN
When: Sunday, August 25, 7:10 p.m. ET
Astros vs. Orioles MLB Odds
Houston Astros -112 // Baltimore Orioles -108
In total: 8.5 (-105/-115)
Game preview Astros vs. Orioles
The race for the best record in the American League is also the race for the East Division crown. The Orioles began the day half a game behind the Yankees, who were clear favorites against the Rockies. Baltimore has been neck and neck with New York for some time now, as most of the league’s top teams have had a tough time of it recently.
The Astros had extended their lead in the AL West to 5.5 games before losing the final two decisions, making them the only team in that division with a winning record. Considering Houston had started the season 7-19 in their first 26 games, the fact that they were able to rally back and take the lead at all was impressive, as they went 12-5 in their final 17 games.
Kikuchi was the Astros’ only major trade-deadline acquisition, and he’s paid off handsomely. In four starts, he’s allowed just six earned runs and eight total runs, with a 31/7 K/BB ratio and a 2.42 ERA and 3.08 FIP. He’s played twice against the Rays, Rangers, and Red Sox, some pretty talented offenses, and has been a regular on AL East teams since coming from the Blue Jays.
The Orioles have a .325 wOBA with a 114 wRC+ in the second half against lefties with a .251/.319/.428 slash, but they have a K% of 25.4%, 10th highest in the league. Kikuchi has worked through the sixth inning in all four starts but hasn’t been able to finish. With manager Joe Espada using a rested bullpen, he may not be used again tonight.
It’s been a great two seasons for Kremer. He’s had two excellent games in a row against the Nationals and Mets, allowing two runs on seven hits in his last 12 innings. He has a 4.30 ERA with a 4.65 FIP, but Oriole Park at Camden Yards hasn’t been kind this season. In 42.2 innings at home, Kremer has allowed a .259/.332/.482 slash line and a .348 wOBA with a 4.85 ERA. On the road, he’s allowed a .184/.267/.296 slash line with a .253 wOBA in 53.2 innings and has a 3.86 ERA.
That start comes at home, where he allowed 10 of his 15 home runs and has a 3.4% lower K%. He allowed just two earned runs in the second half in two home starts, but allowed three unearned runs on July 27 against the Padres.
Houston ranks 15th in wOBA against right-handers in the second half at .316 with a .251/.313/.418 slash and a 107 wRC+. And unlike the Astros, the Orioles’ bullpen has a key reliever with a heavy workload, as Seranthony Dominguez has worked four of the last six days and each of the last two.
I like the Astros here. Houston uses Kikuchi’s arsenal well and his potential seems higher to me than Kremer’s. Also, the O’s lineup definitely looks stronger against right-handers in my opinion. Keep an eye on Yordan Alvarez’s status because if he’s out, the line will probably go Baltimore’s way and you can get a better number. If he’s in, the line will go Houston’s way and pretty quickly.
Selection: Astros -112
Astros vs. Orioles Player Props
First strikeout: Yusei Kikuchi +125
Kremer obviously starts the game here, but he has a K% of 18.8% in the second inning and has also had some trouble with walks. Kikuchi has a K% of 34.1% in his four starts with the Astros. Kikuchi should also have two hitters with a K% of 22% or better in his first inning, while Kremer will have three good contact hitters even if Alvarez can’t play.
